CAC40 (CAC) : Landing at 4650?

Lyxor CAC 40 (CAC) - 20/11/2018

Short Term strategy: Negative (10%) / Trend -
Long Term strategy: Negative (30%) / Trend -

Characteristics of the ETF

The CAC ETF (Lyxor) replicates the CAC 40 index, which is composed of the 40 largest French securities representative of the main sectors of the french economy, while the securities are selected and weighted according to the size of their floating market capitalization.

The costs of the ETF CAC are quite low at 0.25% and the AUM is 4 333M€. Replication is direct (physical) and there is a dividend distribution policy.

Alternative ETFS: C4D (Amundi in Euro), E40 (BNP Paribas Easy in Euro)

 

 

Index & components

It should be noted that the 10 main holdings ​​(which represent about 55% of the index) belong to very different sectors, unlike the DAX (overweight in industrial stocks) or the FTSE100 (pharmacy and financials), the CAC40 is indeed more composite in its sectoral composition.

However, three high-weighted stocks, Total (11.7%), Sanofi (7.9%) and LVMH (6.6%), can influence the index according to their own fundamental factors, which represents a bias.

From a sectoral point of view, we can see that the consumer goods sector represented by luxury goods and cosmetics such as LVMH or Loreal, is one of the most important for the index (16.1%), just behind industry (18%), financials (11.8%) and energy (12.3%).

The CAC40's stocks ​​are often world leaders with a very international exposure, and little dependence on the domestic market and with a strong sensitivity to the US Dollar. French macroeconomic statistics have improved significantly since several months, but especially investors regained confidence with the election of Mr Macron, a liberal and pro-European.

The risk premium linked to the disastrous catastrophe scenario in the euro zone began to decline as soon as the first poll results were released, but the positive impact on French growth linked to the election momentum and hopes for structural reforms as well as the lowering of corporate and capital taxes confirmed in 2018 are still far from being fully integrated. France is at the beginning of a new cycle and strong, positive trends could start this time. The medium-term potential of the index is high, but is so far prevented by tough international context (trade war, FED) and EU politics (Brexit, Italy).

Financials should be key, as they could benefit from the gradual rise in long-term rates as growth resumes and higher inflation expectations, as is already the case in the US, coupled with a more favorable political context.

Monthly data

The monthly chart shows both the summit structure that has built up over a fairly long period and the bearish start from October. After breaking the trading range, prices crossed the EMAs 13 and 26 and the MACD turned down. The objective of this decline is close to the EMA100 level at around 4650 pts.

Données hebdomadaires

Weekly data shows that the index is entering in the core of the correction, with the crossing of the EMAS13 and 26, the crossing of the zero line by the MACD and the crossing of long moving averages. This new bearish impulse should at least go to the long-term bullish line located a little below 4800 pts, from which a rebound could be organized.

ETF Objective

CAC is a UCITS ETF, listed in EUR, which seeks to replicate the CAC40 index (40 french companies)

Characteristics

Inception date 13/12/2000
Expense ratio 0,25%
Issuer Lyxor
Benchmark indice CAC 40 (PX1)
code/ticker CAC
ISIN FR0007052782
UCITS Yes
EU-SD Status Out of scope
Currency EUR
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 4 333 M€
Replication method Direct (Physical)
PEA (France) Yes
SRD (France) Yes
Dividend Distribution
Currency risk No
Number of Holdings 40
Risk 3/5

Country Breakdown

France 97%
Switzerland 1%
Luxembourg 1%
United Kingdom 1%

Sector Breakdown

Industrials 18%
Consumer discretionary 16%
Energy 12%
Financials 12%
Consumer staples 12%
Health Care 10%
Materials 5%
Others 14%

Top Ten Holdings

Total SA 11%
Sanofi 8%
LVMH 7%
BNP Paribas 5%
Airbus 5%
L'Oréal 5%
Air Liquide 4%
AXA 4%
Danone 4%
Vinci 3%