Pan Africa (PAF) : A second leg of rise?

Lyxor ETF Pan Africa (PAF) - 22/03/19

Short Term trend: Positive (90/100)
Long Term trend: Positive (95/100)

Characteristics of the ETF

The ETF Lyxor PAF (Africa) was created in 02/2016, is quoted in Euro on Euronext and seeks to replicate the SGI Pan Africa Index composed of 31 stocks, this index is exposed equally in three geographical areas: Africa North, sub-Saharan Africa and South Africa. For each zone, the 10 most important eligible stocks in terms of market capitalization are retained, since no value can permanently weigh more than 10% of the index.

The costs of this ETF are 0.85% and the AUM approximately 53M €. Replication is indirect (via swap) and there is a dividend capitalization policy.

Alternative ETFs:  AFK (VanEcK Vectors in USD)

 

Index & components

The African zone is an emerging zone with high potential, but which starts from a relatively low economic base: Africa's GDP has reached around $ 2800bn in 2017, which is comparable to that of France, for a population of 1.2 billion inhabitants, which should almost double in the next 20 years.

The main African economies are South Africa, Nigeria, Egypt and Algeria.

There is no political unity in Africa and the area is not homogeneous from an economic point of view or political systems.

However, the region is very rich in natural resources, and investments (Chinese in particular) have helped improve infrastructure in some countries.

Currently, growth is as important as in Asia (around 5%) and largely dependent on oil and raw materials, it also results from demographic dynamism.

The main sectors of activity in the index are mining / materials including gold mining in South Africa, the banking sector as well as the telecommunications sector, noteworthy in the main values ​​the company Napster which holds holdings of e-commerce and technology companies.

Africa remains a fragile zone, exposed to the geopolitical problems and the price of the commodities with also problems of governance.

This index is very sensitive to macroeconomics, US interest rates or the Chinese economy that impact the price of commodities.

All this explains a great volatility during episodes of tension in the markets, to which is added that of currencies.

Nevertheless, the potential of this area is considerable, with a long-term view and the current demographic evolution.

Volatility can be exploited to buy PAF. Governance problems continue to shake African countries regularly, as recently in South Africa, which weighed on the currency (the Rand).

The PAF ETF posted a performance of + 10.8% in 2017, but fell by 15.9% in 2018 in the wake of oil and commodity prices and the main world markets.

The zone remains highly influenced by oil prices momentum and commodities (agricultural and metals), which benefits the two major economies, Nigeria and South Africa.

The heavy weighting of South Africa (39% of the weighting) lead to monitor political developments in this country, as well as gold prices, while gold mining companies represent a significant weight in the index.

Technical Analysis

Weekly analysis

On the weekly chart, we can see that the medium-term bullish reversal has been validated by a crossing of moving averages 13 & 26 and a classical return on crossing the EMA100. The technical oscillators confirm the change of trend. A second leg up is expected in the coming weeks, with the main goal of a return to the 2018 peak.

Daily Analysis

The daily chart shows the end of the correction which was confirmed by the successive overtaking of the short term moving averages (EMAs 13 & 26), then the long term ones (EMA100 then EMA200). The short-term momentum has been a little dull in recent days, but the index appears to be restoring its upside potential for a second leg towards  its summer 2018 level. The positive reversal of the MACD should give the signal.

 

Theme

PAF is a UCITS ETF, listed in Euro, which seeks to replicate the SGI Pan Africa Index EUR Net TR index (31 companies)

Characteristics

Inception date 25/02/2016
Expense ratio 0,85%
Benchmark SGI Pan Africa Net Return
Ticker PAF
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 54 M€
Dividend Capitalization
PEA (France) No
SRD (France) Yes
Currency Risk Yes
Number of Holdings 31
Risk 5/5

Country Breakdown

South Africa 30%
Canada 20%
Maroc 19%
Egypt 14%
United Kingdom 10%
Others 7%

Sector Breakdown

Materials 32%
Financials 32%
Communication Services 16%
Energy 12%
Consumer staples 4%
Consumer discretionary 3%
Others 2%

Top Ten Holdings

First Quantum Minerals 11%
Tullow Oil 10%
Naspers 10%
Commercial Intl Bank 8%
Attijariwafa Bank 6%
B2Gold Corp 4%
Maroc Telecom 4%
Banque Centrale Populaire 4%
Sasol Ltd 3%
Standard Bank Group Ltd 3%