Equity markets were more mixed last week, with a slight increase in Stoxx600 (+ 0.3%) and a slight decline in the S & P500 (-0.5%). The quality values have rebounded a little, but it is still far from offsetting the decline of the previous week.
Our crash indicator finally made only a short incursion into a "bullish" zone for equity markets. He returned to the neutral zone on Tuesday to no longer leave the week, 54/100 currently (neutral zone 50 to 59).
The configuration of trading range remains valid, even if the indicators improve little by little. The Brexit approach, the endless USA / China trade war (which could still see many developments) and the recent attacks on oil installations in Saudi Arabia are all reasons to remain cautious.
Equities:
Despite its decline this week, the CC1 ETF dedicated to China remains in positive configuration in the short term and long term and remains in our selection.
So we keep all the geographical areas, with the exception of India which has been badly oriented for many weeks.
The Russel2000, an American broad index, confirms its positive trend despite its decline this week, after a sharp rise the previous week.
Our equity allocation remains unchanged at 64% of the portfolio.
Bonds:
Bonds remain in positive trend, both in the short and long term, and broadly rebounded after two weeks of small correction.
All categories of Bonds remain currently eligible in our Global Macro portfolio, which therefore includes 17% of Bonds in its allocation.
Gold:
Gold benefited from the renewed geopolitical tensions, and again clearly exceeded $ 1,500 an ounce.
Gold is present in our Global Macro portfolio at 7% of the total.
Commodities:
Commodities (Energy, Agriculture, Industrial Metals), all in a long-term negative trend, are still excluded from our portfolio.
Cash:
Our cash position remains at 11% of the total portfolio.
The rebound in equities markets stalled this week, but without correcting. Our crash risk indicator, at 54/100, returns to the neutral zone.
We remain cautious and do not overweight equities. We maintain a 11% cash position in our portfolio.
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