Our market analysis: 24/02/2018

After the fall, then the rebound, this week was marked by the hesitation that led the Stoxx600NR to increase by 0.23% and the S & P500 finally increased by 0.55% after a session of sharp rise on Friday (+1,6%), which followed a FED report that did not seem to be concerned about the slippage in inflation.

At the same time long rates (10 years US) fell slightly to 2.88% after a high in the week to 2.95%. Volatility, which remained at a high level throughout the week, finally ended at 16.7, signaling some decline in bearish pressure.

US indices end above their resistance materialized by the daily M20 which bodes for a rebound next week. However the theme of inflation and rising rates will remain present in the coming weeks, and volatility should not return to its levels in January (around 10).

Oil delivered a strong performance this week with growth of more than 3%, while tensions between Iran and Israel justify a recovery of the geopolitical premium and that global growth is expected to be around 4% in 2018.

We can notice the good performance of emerging countries that are benefiting from the rebound in oil and commodities, while the Euro / Dollar is stabilizing around 1.23 which marks a certain firmness of the dollar after several weeks of weakness. 

Strong relative performance from Latam (Lyxor LTM) : weekly data

The consequence of  the dollar's strength is a relative weakness in gold, which remains in the high zone.

Corn rebounded strongly (ETN Teucrium Corn) : weekly data