Our Market Analysis: 30/03/2018

This week marks the return to a phase of hesitation after the sharp decline in indices last week in the United States and Europe.

This week ends with a rise in indices, 2% for the S & P500 and 1.4% for the Stoxx600NR, knowing that the outperformance of the US index has occurred after European closing. Note that this week was marked by a rebound in technology stocks, because of a busy news for the GAFAs who underperformed with a Nasdaq100 that increased by only 1%.

Surge in Nikkei225 index (ETF Lyxor JPN), weekly data:

The easing of the markets is due to rumors of trade negotiations with China that would advance quickly and avoid a trade war. At the same time, D.Trump has reached a trade agreement with South Korea, which reassures on the international trade front.

GAFAs have been at the center of the news this week, with the Facebook scandal growing with the FTC's investigations and ultimately taking the technology sector as a whole. At the end of the week, it was Amazon who was under pressure after remarks by D.Trump about his intention to charge more taxes to the technology giant and curb its expansion that harms traditional trade.

Long-term rates lost 10bp this week, benefiting the utilities sector while oil and the Euro / dollar remained more or less stable. The volatility remains between 20 and 25, which shows that the period of low volatility is over and the correction is probably not over yet.

Volatiliy remains higher (ETN iPath VXX), weekly data:

The global indices are currently positioned on medium-term support levels whose possible downward crossing would lead to an acceleration of the correction.