Stoxx600 (SXXR) : Is the alert over?

Lyxor stoxx 600 Net Return (SXXR) - 10/06/19

Short Term trend: Positive (90/100)
Long Term trend: Positive (95/100)

scores computed by our proprietary algorithms - cf methodology

Index profile

The Stoxx600 enjoys a very important depth with 600 holdings ​​and a great diversity by its exposure to the main sectors and countries of the European Union, including outside of the eurozone.

This index is a benchmark for the European markets, and we analyze its stock market behavior with great attention because the evolution of this index partly conditions our sectoral and geographic strategy.

The index is fairly balanced in its weighting with 4 major sectors that represent two thirds of the capitalization. In the first position is the cyclical and sustainable consumer goods sector (23%), which includes food giants such as Nestlé or AB-Inbev, as well as luxury, cosmetics and ready-to-wear brands like LVMH or Inditex as well as the automotive sector; financial (19%) industry (14%) and health (13%). In this index, energy-related values ​​represent only 7% and raw materials 9%. In addition, it should be noted that there is a certain level of currency risk in this index consisting of 24% of British securities and 14% of Swiss securities, even if the securities concerned are international and fairly exposed to the dollar.

The STOXX600 is very representative of the European economy because of its sector weighting, which is less favorable to oil than in some national indices (like the CAC40), while the financial sector (banks + insurance) remains a key compartment with 10% of the weighting but without reaching the weight of the Italian or Spanish indices (c.30%).

This balanced weighting allows MEUD to have lower volatility than the national indices, as this index is much more diversified and without sector bias. The ETF MEUD has the advantage of replicating a broader index than the Eurostoxx50 and which also incorporates smaller capitalizations, but with a more dynamic path.

The European economic cycle is currently weakening, which is validated both by the PMIs datas and also the market consensus for corporates which is adjusting lower at quick pace for 2019 results expectations. The ECB remains a factor of stabilization and the monetary normalization should be very progressive in the absence of inflation.

 

Instruments: MEUD (Lyxor in Euro),C6E (Amundi in Euro), ETZ (BNP Paribas Easy in Euro), EXSA (iShares in Euro)

Technical analysis

Weekly data analysis

The weekly chart shows a strong bullish reaction that interrupts the corrective phase, but does not end or reactivate the uptrend for the moment. Indeed the MACD has reversed downward, which implies a likely phase of wavering in the coming weeks, especially as moving averages are flat and the overall look of the chart becomes globally neutral.

Daily data analysis

On the daily chart we see the positive reaction of the index from the EMA200 to be confirmed this week, with a return above the EMAs12 and 26 and a bullish reversal of the MACD confirmed on the other technical oscillators. For the short-term reversal to be confirmed, it will be necessary to get a bullish crossing of the EMAs 12 and 26 and overcome the resistance of the 816 pts. This breakthrough therefore requires confirmation and is not yet validated.

Country breakdown

United Kingdom 23%
France 17%
Germany 15%
Switzerland 15%
Netherlands 7%
Spain 5%
Sweden 4%
Others 14%

Sector breakdown

Financials 18%
Industrials 14%
Consumer staples 14%
Health Care 13%
Consumer discretionary 9%
Materials 8%
Energy 7%
Others 16%

Top Ten holdings

Nestlé 3%
Novartis 2%
Roche Holding 2%
HSBC 2%
Total 2%
Royal Dutch Shell 2%
BP 2%
SAP 1%
LVMH 1%
Linde 1%