MSCI World index (ACWI) : folds but does not break

Lyxor MSCI All Country World UCITS ETF - ACWI - 05/11/2018

Short Term strategy: Negative (30%) / Trend -
Long Term strategy: Positive (65%) / Trend -

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Characteristics of the ETF

The ACWU (Lyxor) UCITS ETF created in 09/2011 replicates the MSCI World all countries index, which is listed in USD and composed of 2790 representative securities from more than 50 countries, while the stocks are selected according to the size of their market capitalization. This ETF is quoted in Euro on Euronext and ETF fees are 0.45% for assets under management of €405bn. Replication is indirect (via swap) and there is a dividend capitalization policy.

Alternative ETFS: ISAC (iShares in USD)

 

Latest developments

After an increase of 23.8% in 2017, the MSCI World index rose by only 1.76% in 2018, which is essentially linked to the strong momentum of the US since the beginning of the year, despite the current correction and more recently Latin America in the wake of the Brazilian elections. Note that the index in Euro is better oriented than in USD because of the strength of the dollar against other currencies. Europe is now in a bearish momentum, due to fears over Brexit and Italy. This is also the case of Asian markets, Chinese in particular. The resolution of the trade dispute between the US and China is key to the recovery of the index, however an agreement seems possible after the mid-term elections of November 6 while D.Trump is optimistic for the first time on the conclusion of an agreement from the end of November, indicating positive discussions and important progress with the Chinese side.

 

Index & components

The interest of this index is primarily its depth which allows it to be a good proxy for the world economy, but with a strong US weighting (54%) while China is under-represented at 4.5% if we include Hong Kong. All emerging countries represent around 12% of the index's capitalization, compared to 88% for developed countries, including 7% for Japan and 22% for Europe. The top 10 stocks of the MSCI World are major American stocks (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, JP Morgan, Exxon ...), which represent 11% of the index.

Sector weighting further favors growth sectors, as do technology stocks that account for about 16% of the weighting. Financials represent 18% of the index and energy stocks 6%, which are well balanced by defensive sectors such as health (about 12%) and consumer discretionary (10%). The index has enjoyed strong momentum for two years, thanks to the very strong momentum of the US market which has accelerated after the election of D.Trump because of its policy of lower taxes and deregulation. However, in recent months, the dynamism of the US markets has become more difficult to drag the rest of the world because of the downward trend of the emerging-country indices which began in the spring with the decline in foreign currencies of some countries (Indonesia, South Africa) following the rise of the US dollar and US long-term rates, as a result of the economic war triggered by D.Trump ,. The US is currently the only area to pull the index up with Brazil that reversed up in the wake of presidential poll, despite global GDP growth estimated at nearly 4%.

Monthly data

The monthly chart shows a trend that remains positively oriented but has suffered a significant bearish attack in October that may leave traces. A replica of this attack a little later in the month is quite likely with EMA26 as the first target. The oscillators have turned down like the MACD, but remain in the high zone which makes this correction compatible with the continuation of the trend.

Weekly data

On the weekly chart, we can see the bearish reversal that resulted in a cross between the EMAs13 and 26, and the reversal of the MACD heading towards its zero line. The index is trying a rebound on its EMA100 which should continue for a few days. However the risk of failure is important on the level of 240 pts. The EMA100 remains the major support that, in the event of a break, would open a bearish potential of around 10%.

ETF Objective

ACWI is a UCITS ETF, listed in EUR, which seeks to replicate the MSCI All Country World index (2 790 companies)

Characteristics

Inception date 05/09/2011
Expense ratio 0,45%
Benchmark MSCI All Country World
Ticker ACWI
ISIN FR0011079466
Currency $
UCITS Yes
EU-SD Status Out of scope
Exchange LSE
Assets Under Management 402 M€
Replication method Indirect (swap)
Dividend Capitalization
Currency risk Yes
Number of Holdings 2 790
Risk 3/5

Country Breakdown

USA 54%
Japan 7%
United Kingdom 5%
France 3%
Canada 3%
Switzerland 3%
Germany 3%
China 3%
Australia 2%
South Korea 2%
Others 15%

Sector Breakdown

Financials 18%
Information Technology 16%
Health Care 12%
Consumer discretionary 10%
Industrials 10%
Communication Services 9%
Consumer staples 8%
Others 17%

Top Ten Holdings

Apple 3%
Amazon 2%
Microsoft 2%
Alphabet 2%
Facebook 1%
JPMorgan Chase 1%
Johnson & Johnson 1%
Exxon Mobil 1%
Bank of America 1%