Europe Bank (BNK) : Still under pressure

Lyxor ETF Europe 600 Bank - BNK - 05/02/19

Short Term strategy: Negative (30%) / Trend -
Long Term strategy: Negative (5%) / Trend =

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Characteristics of the ETF

The Lyxor BNK ETF (Banks Europe) created in 08/2006 in Euro on Euronext and seeks to replicate the STOXX600 Bank Europe Index which is composed of the main European banking stocks. About half of the capitalization quotes in Euro, the other half is made up of English, Swiss and Nordic banks.

The costs of this ETF are 0.3% and the AUM approximately 523M €. Replication is indirect (via a swap) and there is a dividend capitalization policy.

Alternative ETFs: CB5 (Amundi in Euro), EXV1 (iShares in Euro).

Index & components

The interest of the BNK tracker lies in the fact that it groups together the 48 largest banks in the main European economies, with a great geographical diversity and a good North / South mix (31% UK, 15% Spain , 10% France, 9% Switzerland, 8% Italy), while relying on the strongest and most capitalized securities BNK brings together banks specialized in the retail (Lloyds or Santander for example) but also so-called universal banks like the French banks (BNP, SG and CA), which rely on both an investment bank and a retail model.

The activities of the big banks are well represented, and the banks are currently in "transition" mode as the 2008 crisis has left its mark on a number of fronts: following central bank actions and QE programs, banks saw their margins erode because of negative rates, while they could no longer place their deposits at the ECB and are now experiencing a very flat yield curve with long rates remaining at very low levels.

On the other hand, the increased regulatory requirements have forced banks to significantly increase their own funds, which amounts to reducing the leverage and therefore the risks associated with their operations, but mechanically leads to lower ROCEs. In addition, the banking model is increasingly challenged by more innovative players, the "fintechs" who redefine the customer relationship and the notion of service in the financial world through offers with high technological content, while new approaches disruptive devices such as the blockchain that secures transactions outside any "third party" could in the long run threaten the role of banks as intermediaries in the economies of developed countries.

However, bank valuations already incorporate many of these risks, while a number of them have already embarked on ambitious transformation / digitization plans and should take advantage of ongoing changes. In the same way that the distribution was transformed 20 years ago by the arrival of the actors of the web, without disappearing so far, it is likely that banks will follow the same path of adaptation and modernization without prohibiting acquire knowledge by buying fintechs.

 

Latest developments

BNK posted a positive performance of + 12.1% in 2017, higher than the STOXX600NR (+ 10.6%) but decreased by -24.9% since the beginning of 2018 (versus -10.7% for the stoxx600NR), due to the return of political risk in Europe with Italy, Brexit and now yellow vests in France.

But other factors are also very detrimental for the banking sector, such as the slump in growth in the Eurozone, with Germany and Italy experiencing a sharp slowdown, which will continue to fuel the low inflation and the increase in risk’s costs.

Moreover, long rates have come down again sharply which will weigh on the banks margins especially in retail. In the second half of 2018, trading activities were strongly penalized by the markets decline.

The banking sector can only recover with the return of growth in Europe, while the consolidation of the sector remains at a standstill.

Weekly data

The weekly chart shows a relentless downtrend since the beginning of 2018, with few attempts to recover. The intensity of the fall could stabilize if the general context does not deteriorate, but the natural objective of the decline is represented by the 2012 and 2015 bottoms at around 13 €. Some divergences appear on the technical oscillators, but which are quite insufficient to anticipate a reversal.

Daily data

On the daily chart it can be seen that the EMA100 day play the role of resistance since the beginning of the decline. In this case, its crossing is the main point to be monitored. For the moment, the prices seem to be turning down again, visible on short-term moving averages and on all technical oscillators, with the MACD at last. The downtrend of the EMAs13 & 26 should, if confirmed, lead to a downward acceleration.

Theme

BNK is a UCITS ETF, listed in EUR, which seeks to replicate the STOXX Europe 600 Banks Net Return EUR index (48 european Banks)

Characteristics

Inception date 25/08/2006
Expense ratio 0,30%
Issuer Lyxor
Benchmark Stoxx600 Banque
Ticker BNK
ISIN LU1834983477
UCITS Yes
EU-SD Status No
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 521 M€
Dividend Capitalization
PEA (France) Yes
SRD (France) Yes
Currency Risk Yes
Number of Holdings 48
Risk 4/5

Country Breakdown

United Kingdom 31%
Spain 15%
France 10%
Switzerland 9%
Sweden 9%
Italy 8%
Netherlands 6%
Germany 2%
Others 9%

Sector Breakdown

Financials 100%

Top Ten Holdings

HSBC Holdings 18%
Banco Santander 8%
Lloyds Banking Group 6%
BNP Paribas 6%
UBS Group 5%
ING Groep 5%
BBVA 4%
Intesa San Paolo 4%
Barclays 3%
Crédit Suisse 3%