Europe Financial Services (FIN) : Back in bullish trend

Lyxor Stoxx 600 Financial Services (FIN) - 11/04/2018

Short Term strategy: Positive (90%) / Trend +
Long Term strategy: Positive (75%) / Trend =

Characteristics of the ETF

The ETF Lyxor FIN (European Financial Services) created in 08/2006 is listed in Euro on Euronext and seeks to replicate the STOXX600 Financial Services Europe index composed of 29 European securities of which approximately 41% are English, which implies a risk related to the Euro - Pound Sterling parity which can be quite volatile in the Brexit period.

The costs of this ETF are 0.3% and the AUM approximately 27M €. Replication is indirect (via Swap) and there is a dividend capitalization policy.

Alternative ETFs: EXH2 (iShares in Euro), EUFN (iShares in USD).
 

 
Latest developments

After a drop of -5% in 2016, a performance significantly lower than the Stoxx600 (+ 1.7%) linked to Brexit, the sector started up again in 2017 and grew by 20.2% (against +10,6% for the Stoxx600).

In 2018 the increase remains positive at + 2.4%, while the major indices are down. This good performance is due in part to the excellent performance of Deutsche Boerse, the index's first capitalization (12.6%), which rose by 18.3% thanks to the good prospects of the Francfort market.

While more than 40% of the capitalization is made up of British securities (including LSE, 3I or Standart Life), the greater visibility on the brexit conditions after an early agreement with Europe is a clear positive factor, from a currency point of view, the £ / Euro has been rising for a few weeks, but also from an economic models point of view. The LSE has risen by 13.3% since the beginning of the year with solid prospects for 2018.

 

Index & components

ETF FIN is composed of financial services companies, including major European marketplaces, as well as listed investment companies or funds whose main activity is to manage investments in listed or unlisted companies (Private Equity) as 3I, (6% of capitalization) at different stages of their development.

In addition, the ETF FIN includes holding companies such as Investor (9.6% of capitalization), which has holdings in its portfolio of large Nordic listed companies such as Atlas Copco, Alfa Laval and Enskilda; this is also the case for the Brussels Lambert Group (French and Belgian holdings) or Exor (Italy). The holding / private equity sector takes advantage of the low interest rate environment, which makes it possible to benefit from a high level of financial leverage. Companies are considered as financial companies. In addition, the sector benefits from innovation and new paradigms that tend to multiply with the "uberisation" of many sectors, it is therefore a sector of the future that is essential for start-ups to finance their development.

We consider it an investment that has its place in a long-term strategy. However, this theme is sensitive to long-term rates and could suffer from a rapid rise in the US or Europe, which is not our central scenario given the structural deflationary pressures (technology, increase in the labor force, emerging markets, lower prices of raw materials). The index also includes major marketplaces such as LSE (8.9%) and Deutsche Boerse (12.6%), which are true software companies, producing indices and derivatives used by market participants. These companies have an increasingly high-tech profile, with high margin profiles.

This index can, however, record significant episodes of volatility during periods when the financial system is involved, such as 2008, 2011 (sovereign debt crisis in Europe) or more recently in early 2016 with the episode of fears over high yield funds following the sharp drop in oil prices.

Weekly data

The weekly chart shows a new upward momentum that puts the index back on track for new highs. The relative behavior of this index is favorable and the bullish gap recorded this week is a sign of strength. However, the bearish gap at the beginning of February remains open and its invalidation is necessary for the continuation of the rise. The correction on the index seems over, and the recovery should be validated soon by a bullish reversal on the MACD.

Daily data

On the daily chart, we can observe the formation of a double dip on the EMA200 which leads to the crossing of the EMA13 and 26 which signals a bullish reversal in the short term. The validation of the movement remains conditioned to the rupture of the neck line located on the level of 60 €. The oscillators have turned upward, which reinforces the bullish sentiment in the short term.

ETF Objective

FIN is a UCITS ETF listed in Euro, which seeks to replicate the Stoxx Europe 600 Financial Services Net Return (29 companies)

Characteristics

Inception date 18/08/2006
Expense ratio 0,30%
Issuer Lyxor
Benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Financial Services
ISIN FR0010345363
Ticker FIN
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 28 M€
Replication Method Indirect (via a swap)
Dividend Capitalization
PEA (France) Yes
SRD (France) Yes
Number of Holdings 29
Risk 3/5

Country breakdown

United Kingdom 38%
Sweden 17%
Germany 14%
Switzerland 11%
Belgium 6%
Italy 5%
France 4%
Others 5%

Sector Breakdown

Financials 97%
Consumer Discretionary 2%
Industrials 1%

Top Ten Holdings

Deutsche Boerse 13%
Investor AB 10%
London Stock Exchange 9%
Partners Group Holding 8%
Standard Life 7%
3I Group 6%
Groupe Bruxelles Lambert 4%
Investment AB  4%
Exor NV 4%
Hargreaves Landsdown 3%