Europe Financial Services (FIN) : Acceleration in sight?

Lyxor Stoxx 600 Financial Services (FIN) - 19/09/2018

Short Term strategy: Positive (90%) / Trend +
Long Term strategy: Positive (85%) / Trend +

Characteristics of the ETF

The ETF Lyxor FIN (European Financial Services) created in 08/2006 is listed in Euro on Euronext and seeks to replicate the STOXX600 Financial Services Europe index composed of 28 European securities of which approximately 40% are English, which implies a risk related to the Euro - Pound Sterling parity which can be quite volatile in the Brexit period.

The costs of this ETF are 0.3% and the AUM approximately 28M €. Replication is indirect (via Swap) and there is a dividend capitalization policy.

Alternative ETFs: EXH2 (iShares in Euro), EUFN (iShares in USD).

Latest developments

After a drop of -5% in 2016, a performance significantly lower than the Stoxx600 (+ 1.7%) linked to Brexit, the sector started up again in 2017 and rose by 20.2% (against +10,6% for the Stoxx600).

In 2018 the progression is almost 4%, against -0.3% for the stoxx600 NR. This good performance is due in part to the excellent performance of marketplaces such as L.S.E (+ 27%) and Deutsche Boerse (21%).

The index is composed of British stocks for 40% of the capitalization (including LSE, 3I or Hargreaves Lansdown) which does not affect the performance despite the persistent blur on the brexit conditions, and which is rather related to the intrinsic performances of these companies.

The good markets performance coupled with favorable interest rate environment also favors the activity of these companies.

 

Index & components

ETF FIN is composed of financial services companies, including major European marketplaces, as well as listed investment companies or funds whose main activity is to manage investments in listed or unlisted companies (Private Equity) as 3I, (6% of capitalization) at different stages of their development.

In addition, the ETF FIN includes holding companies such as Investor (10% of capitalization), which has holdings in its portfolio of large Nordic listed companies such as Atlas Copco, Alfa Laval and Enskilda; this is also the case for the Brussels Lambert Group (French and Belgian holdings) or Exor (Italy). The holding / private equity sector takes advantage of the low interest rate environment, which makes it possible to benefit from a high level of financial leverage. Companies are considered as financial companies.

In addition, the sector benefits from innovation and new paradigms that tend to multiply with the "uberisation" of many sectors, it is therefore a sector of the future that is essential for start-ups to finance their development.

We consider it an investment that has its place in a long-term strategy. However, this theme is sensitive to long-term rates and could suffer from a rapid rise in the US or Europe, which is not our central scenario given the structural deflationary pressures (technology, increase in the labor force, emerging markets, lower prices of raw materials). The index also includes major marketplaces such as LSE (10%) and Deutsche Boerse (13%), which are true software companies, producing indices and derivatives used by market participants. These companies have an increasingly high-tech profile, with high margin profiles.

This index can, however, record significant episodes of volatility during periods when the financial system is involved, such as 2008, 2011 (sovereign debt crisis in Europe) or more recently in early 2016 with the episode of fears over high yield funds following the sharp drop in oil prices.

Monthly data

The monthly chart shows a bullish trend with a more gradual evolution profile in recent months but with prices that remain close to the historical highs. The technical oscillators remain in the high zone but with a certain loss of momentum. A new upward momentum could revive the trend, which is not threatened for the moment, while moving averages are still rising, but looking for new momentum.

Weekly data

On the weekly chart, we can see a flattening of the EMAs13 and 26 since the beginning of the year 2018. However, after a false downward crossing, the moving averages are up again and the MACD seems to be doing the same. A new bullish attempt seems to be organized with the aim of exceeding the € 63. A new high in the coming weeks would allow reactivating the uptrend.

ETF Objective

FIN is a UCITS ETF, listed in EUR, which seeks to replicate the Stoxx Europe 600 Financial Services Net Return index (28 companies)

Characteristics

Inception date 18/08/2006
Expense ratio 0,30%
Issuer Lyxor
Benchmark Stoxx Europe 600 Financial Services
ISIN FR0010345363
Ticker FIN
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 28 M€
Replication method Indirect (via a swap)
Dividend Capitalization
PEA (France) Yes
SRD (France) Yes
Number of Holdings 28
Risk 3/5

Country Breakdown

United Kingdom 40%
Sweden 16%
Germany 14%
Switzerland 11%
Belgium 6%
Italy 4%
France 4%
Others 5%

Sector Breakdown

Financials 98%
Consumer discretionary 2%

Top Ten Holdings

Deutsche Boerse 13%
Investor AB 10%
London Stock Exchange 10%
Partners Group Holding 9%
Standard Life 6%
3I Group 6%
Groupe Bruxelles Lambert 4%
Investment AB  4%
Exor NV 4%
Hargreaves Landsdown 4%