Greece (GRE) : The rebound is still valid

Lyxor FTSE ATHEX Large Cap (GRE) - 11/05/2018

Short term strategy: Positive (80%) / Trend +
Long Term strategy: Positive (95%) / Trend +

Characteristics of the ETF

The ETF GRE (Lyxor) created in 01/2007 quoted in Euro on Euronext and replicates the index FTSE ATHEX LARGE CAP Total Net Return composed of the 25 largest companies listed on the Athens Exchange (ATHEX).

The fees of this ETF are 0.45% for AUM of € 227m. The replication method is indirect (via swap) and there is an annual dividend distribution policy.

Alternative ETFs: GREK (Global X in USD)

Index & components

The ETF GRE is composed of 25 companies, so it is rather narrow compared to the other national indices but finally quite diversified with 29% for the financial sector which gathers the main banks of the country (Alpha Bank, National Bank of Greece, Eurobank ergasias , Piraeus Bank).

The consumer goods sector accounts for 22% (mainly the Coca-Cola subsidiary), 11% for telecoms (Hellenic Telecoms), while the industrial sector (Cement, energy, materials) represent essentially the remaining part. Note the presence of a gaming company: OPAP, which accounts for nearly 7.5% of capitalization.

The Greek economy is roughly at the level of Portugal, with a GDP of about € 187 billion. The worst seems over for Greece, which returned to growth in 2016 at + 0.3%, with an acceleration of + 1.4% in 2017 and a forecast of the European Commission at + 1.8% in 2018.

Thanks to the diversification, country has replaced agriculture as the second largest source of income after services, accounting for 15.7% of GDP and employing 15% of the labor force, although its share was larger (20% ) before the 2007 economic crisis. The main sectors are electronics, transportation equipment, clothing and construction. Greece has the largest maritime fleet in the world and the tertiary sector accounts for 80% of GDP and employs 71% of the active population while tourism alone contributes 11% of GDP.

Greece has an international-oriented economy, with trade accounting for 64% of GDP, and Greece's main trading partners are the European Union (especially Italy and Germany), Turkey and Russia. Economic activity returned in 2017 thanks to the banking sector, which continues to stabilize, and a more favorable European context. The rating agencies note their rating one after the other.

After a lost decade, Greece seems to be able to gradually regain its financial and budgetary autonomy.

 
Latest developments

GRE grew by 22.2% in 2017 but has been stable since the beginning of 2018.

The country is emerging from several years of recession, which has erased about a quarter of its gross domestic product (GDP) and boosted the rate of unemployment up to almost 28%. The unemployment rate in Greece continued its decline in 2017, standing at 20.2% against 22.6% a year earlier, but remains the highest in the euro zone.

The Greek banking system is strengthening, and growth that was lower than expected in 2017 (1 .4% against 1.6%) is expected to strengthen in 2018, with a forecast of around 1.8%.

The problem remains the burden of debt (179% of GDP). The creditors have started negotiations for debt relief, conditioned to the pace of growth. According to a mechanism proposed by France Greece would pay more for the service of its debt if its economy grows and less when it stagnates. An agreement is possible at the meeting of finance ministers of the euro area in June, said the Greek government has just received the green light for the payment of a new tranche, € 5.7 billion, the third loan granted to the country in 2015.

Greece could pull out of the European aid plan in the summer of 2018, unless its creditors, Germany in the first place manage to demand an extension.

Weekly data

The weekly chart shows that the mid-term correction that brought the index from its January high to 1.08 to its € 0.94 EMA100 is over. The prices are ironed above moving averages, despite erratic trend for 2 weeks. The current weekly candlestick is a hammer that shows a bullish surge on the EMA26 level and should be followed by the continuation of the rise. We will monitor a possible reversal of the MACD that comes to validation.

Daily data

On the daily chart there is clearly a bullish reaction on the EMA200 early this week, which preserves the bullish technical profile of the index. It will now have to move above the short term moving averages around 1.015 to boost momentum. Oscillators have not yet turned upward because of the rather chaotic course of the index.

 

ETF Objective

GRE is an ETF listed in €, which seeks to replicate the FTSE/Athens Stock Exchange Large Cap Net Total Return Index

Characteristics

Inception date 05/01/2007
Expense ratio 0,45%
Issuer Lyxor
Benchmark FTSE ATHEX Large Cap
Code / Ticker GRE
ISIN FR0010405431
UCITS Yes
EU-SD Status Out of Scope
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 228 M€
Replication Method Indirect (swap)
PEA (France) Yes
SRD (France) Yes
Dividend Capitalization
Currency Risk Yes
Number of Holdings 25
Risk 4/5

Country Breakdown

Greece 78%
Switzerland 21%
Belgium 1%

Sector Breakdown

Financials 29%
Consumer Staples 22%
Consumer discretionary 15%
Telecom Services 11%
Industrials 7%
Energy 6%
Materials 4%
Others 6%

Top Ten Holdings

Coca Cola HBC 21%
Alpha Bank 11%
Hellenic Telecom 11%
OPAP 8%
National Bank of Greece 7%
Eurobank Ergasias 7%
Jumbo SA 6%
Motor Oil 4%
Mitilineos Holdings 4%
Titan Cement 4%