Gold (IAU) : A rebound to monitor

iShares Gold Trust - IAU - 06/12/2018

Short Term strategy: Positive (70%) / trend +
Long Term strategy: Negative (10%) / trend =

Characteristics of the ETF

The ETF IAU Gold Trust (Ishares) allows the investor to access a daily exposure to gold bullion price variation, and is an easy way to access physical gold through a financial instrument, both liquid and whose access cost is limited to 0.25%. Gold is a very volatile asset, and as any commodity does not give rise to a dividend and is a risky asset.

AUM amount to approximately $ 10853 million.

Alternative ETFs: GLD (SPDR in USD), DGL (PowerShares in USD)

Index & components

Gold has the particularity of not being correlated with equity and bond markets and has also been used as a safe haven since immemorial time, especially in periods of high inflation and financial crises, as we saw during the recent period (2007-2012) marked by the subprime crisis, then by the crisis on European peripheral debts. In addition, gold is sensitive to other factors such as central bank purchases and currently there are significant flows of purchases from central banks of emerging countries such as China and India.

The dynamics of US interest rates are also very important for gold prices as this precious metal naturally do not deliver dividends or coupon, so the Fed policy is a central issue for gold prices and if the Fed does not accelerate the rate of hike in the coming months it should be beneficial for gold prices. On the other hand, in the event of an inflationary spiral as in the 1970s, the very sharp rise in interest rates becomes good news for gold as a safe haven.

Gold can also be seen as a diversification alongside an equity portfolio, as the evolution of the precious metal is not correlated with economic cycles and can follow a very different evolution or opposite to the trend of stock indices, but not necessarily. Finaly gold is denominated in US $, which can have a double effect since on the one hand the dollar is itself considered as a safe haven and the decline of the dollar tends to be favorable to commodities.

Rumors of embargoes / quotas on the import of gold in India following a demonetization policy also weighed on the prices from the end of 2016, while India is the largest consumer of gold especially for jewelery. But the FED's currently measured policy on rates and the still significant threats to possible trade conflicts between China and the US (or even with Germany and Japan), coupled with possible underestimated consequences of Brexit as well as the very large indebtedness of the largest economies (US, China, Japan, Europe) may favor a rebound of the yellow metal later on.

Latest developments

Gold rose by 13.1% in 2017, for the second year in a row (+ 8.6% in 2016), after three years of sharp decline between 2013 and 2015, which corresponds to the end of the debt crisis. European.

However, Gold is down 5% since the beginning of the year, which is linked to the sharp rise in the US dollar and the rise in US long-term rates above 3.2% (10 years) because gold does not deliver dividends or coupons. However, in recent weeks, fears about the global economy and in particular the end of the US growth cycle are making gold more attractive while the Fed's comments are in favor of a stabilization of policy rates. in 2019.

Fears about inflation also fell due to the fall of oil and the worsening of the trade crisis between China and the US, despite the truce concluded at the G20 in Argentina, which did not convince the markets.

Weekly data

The weekly chart shows a medium-term trend that is turning upwards, with prices coming back above the EMAs 13 & 26 and the upturn in all the oscillators. However, for the recovery to be confirmed, the EMA100 and 200 would have to be passed and the EMAs13 and 26 crossed. Therefore, for now, caution remains.

Daily data

On the daily chart, we can observe the bullish exit of the index from the passing of the EMA100, with several bullish gaps opened successively. The prices are now coming to the EMA200, which will be a test of importance for the trend that has just begun. A confirmed bullish breakout of the EMA200 would probably have a favorable influence on the medium-term trend, and this is the area to be monitored.

ETF Objective

IAU is an ETF, listed in USD, which seeks to replicate prices of Gold.


Inception date 21/01/2005
Expense ratio 0,25%
Issuer iShares
Benchmark LBMA Gold Price
code/ticker IAU
ISIN US4682851053
Currency USD
Exchange NYSE
Assets Under Management 10 853 M$
Dividend No
Number of holdings 0
Risk 3/5

Country Breakdown


Sector Breakdown

Gold  100%

Top Ten Holdings

Gold 100%