Gold (IAU) : under pressure

iShares Gold Trust - IAU - 31/07/2018

Short Term strategy: Negative (10%) / trend -
Long Term strategy: Negative (35%) / trend -

Characteristics of the ETF

The ETF IAU Gold Trust (Ishares) allows the investor to access a daily exposure to gold bullion price variation, and is an easy way to access physical gold through a financial instrument, both liquid and whose access cost is limited to 0.25%. Gold is a very volatile asset, and as any commodity does not give rise to a dividend and is a risky asset.

AUM amount to approximately $ 10316 million.

Alternative ETFs: GLD (SPDR in USD), DGL (PowerShares in USD)

Index & components

Gold has the particularity of not being correlated with equity and bond markets and has also been used as a safe haven since immemorial time, especially in periods of high inflation and financial crises, as we saw during the recent period (2007-2012) marked by the subprime crisis, then by the crisis on European peripheral debts.

In addition, gold is sensitive to other factors such as central bank purchases and currently there are significant flows of purchases from central banks of emerging countries such as China and India. The dynamics of US interest rates are also very important for gold prices as this precious metal naturally do not deliver dividends or coupon, so the Fed policy is a central issue for gold prices and if the Fed does not accelerate the rate of hike in the coming months it should be beneficial for gold prices. On the other hand, in the event of an inflationary spiral as in the 1970s, the very sharp rise in interest rates becomes good news for gold as a safe haven.

Gold can also be seen as a diversification alongside an equity portfolio, as the evolution of the precious metal is not correlated with economic cycles and can follow a very different evolution or opposite to the trend of stock indices, but not necessarily.

Finaly gold is denominated in US $, which can have a double effect since on the one hand the dollar is itself considered as a safe haven and the decline of the dollar tends to be favorable to commodities.

Rumors of embargoes / quotas on the import of gold in India following a demonetization policy also weighed on the prices from the end of 2016, while India is the largest consumer of gold especially for jewelery. But the FED's currently measured policy on rates and the still significant threats to possible trade conflicts between China and the US (or even with Germany and Japan), coupled with possible underestimated consequences of Brexit as well as the very large indebtedness of the largest economies (US, China, Japan, Europe) may favor a rebound of the yellow metal later on.

Latest developments

Gold rose by 13.1% in 2017, for the second year in a row (+ 8.6% in 2016), after 3 years of sharp decline between 2013 and 2015, which corresponds to the end of the european debt crisis.

Gold, however, is down 6.1% since the beginning of the year, which is linked to the rise of the US dollar against the other major currencies, while the yellow metal is highly correlated with the USD.

In addition, the acceleration of the rise in US short-term rates envisaged by the FED is a negative factor because gold does not distribute dividends. The policy of D.Trump is inflationary which has the effect of weighing on gold prices without triggering a real panic or distrust of the markets, so gold has no reason to benefit for the moment of this market phase.

On the other hand, in the event of a marked weakening of the dollar and / or US bonds, gold would become an interesting alternative.

Données mensuelles

Le graphique mensuel montre un renversement baissier en cours. Les prix ont franchi à la baisse les MME13 et 26 et se retrouvent désormais sur les niveaux de la MME100, dernier support avant le basculement en tendance baissière. Le MACD s’est croisé à la baisse mais reste au-dessus de sa ligne de zéro. La configuration technique se dégrade nettement et le niveau des 1220 est clé.


Données hebdomadaires

Sur le graphique hebdomadaire, on peut observer que le basculement à la baisse a eu lieu et que tous les indicateurs sont devenus baissiers avec des moyennes qui sont descendantes. Le seul bémol à cette baisse est sa faible vélocité, ainsi que le fait que les cours arrivent dans une zone de résistance importante vers les 1200 $. La MME100 est plate ce qui implique aussi un retour à la moyenne.

Objectifs de l’ETF

IAU is an ETF which seeks to replicate the performance of the price of Gold.


Inception date 21/01/2005
Expense ratio 0,25%
Issuer iShares
Benchmark LBMA Gold Price
code/ticker IAU
ISIN US4682851053
Currency USD ($)
Exchange NYSE/USA
Assets Under Management 10 316 M$
Dividend No
Number of Holdings 0
Risk 3/5

Country Breakdown


Sector Breakdown

Gold 100%

Top Ten Holdings

Gold 100%