Assurance Europe (INS) : a bet on rising yields

Lyxor ETF Assurance - INS - 14/07/2017

Short term strategy : Positive (60%) / Trend +
Long term strategy : Positive (100%) / Trend +

Characteristics of the ETF

The ETF INS ( Lyxor) tracks the Stoxx600 insurance index, which is composed of the 34 largest European companies in this sector, mainly English, French, German, and Swiss.

The top 10 holdings represent 70% of the index market capitalization, are definitely giants such as Allianz, Axa, Prudential and Zurich Insurance Group. Approximately 50% of the companies are listed  in Euro, the other half in sterling and Swiss Franc. The insurance sector is largely influenced by macroeconomic environment of which depends directly the demand except for the damage insurance component, which depends on statistical and exogenous factors. Specifically, interest rates are the main driver of performance as they make the insurance products ( including life insurance) more or less attractive. They also largely determine profitability because insurers, as long-term savers, invest premiums primarily in bonds.

In recent years, this low interest rate implies a contraction in spreads that negatively impacts profits. However, only new premiums are invested at lower yields and insurers can rely on the higher rate levels of previous years which allows for some smoothing. When investment returns are declining, insurers clearly need to improve their bottom line and portfolio management becomes the driving force behind performance. The quest for returns requires a gradual return to risky assets or alternative investments. This also implies that geographic exposure has a strong impact on sales depending on the country's macroeconomic environment and also on the balance sheet as insurers tend to invest their assets in the same area as their liabilities. The rise in the sector remains a bet on the rise in long-term interest rates, which seems to be well under way in the United Kingdom, while the euro area is expected to follow, while the ECB provides the first signs of normalisation of its monetary policy, with a view towards progressive reflation of the EU economy.

The expenses of this ETF amount to 0.3%, which is rather in the average. It should be noted that the outstanding amount of this ETF is only € 57 million, compared to, for example, that of BNK (European Banks) which is much higher at € 710 million.

After a very sharp correction during the financial crisis, which has seen INS falling from €26.4 to € on 07/2007 to €6.8 in 03/2009, this tracker then gradually managed to close 2015 at € 33.4, i.e. well above its pre-crisis levels. 2016 was a year of slight consolidation ( -2.5%) due to the fall in yields but so far in 2017 INS turned upwards again ( + 9.4%), a trend which was recently strengthened due to rising interest rates. The outlook is positive.

Monthly data

The monthly chart of INS is evolving in a bullish structure reactivated since the end of 2016, and which is stronger relatively than the Stoxx600 in recent weeks which is linked to the ECB's announcements and rising rates. From a technical point of view, an important point is the exceeding of the April 2015 summit (retested in December 2015), which seems to be taking shape in July but still to be confirmed.

A closing above 35 € would validate this excess, which would allow the index to evolve without resistance in the coming months.

 

Weekly data

The weekly analysis shows a gradual upward movement, but continuous since the beginning of the year. However, since the “Macron gap”of April, the index is putting some pressure on the 35€ resistance level, without yet succeeding in crossing it clearly. As a result, the MACD flattened out awaiting the next impulse.

The fact that the prices realize all-time highs in daily datas is encouraging and pleads for the confirmation of the bullish breakout.

 

ETF Objective

INS is a UCITS compliant ETF that aims to track the benchmark index Stoxx Europe 600 Insurance Net Return (34 companies)

Characteristics

Inception date 18/08/2006
Expenses 0,30%
Issuer Lyxor
Benchmark stoxx 600 Insurance net return
ticker INS
ISIN FR0010344903
UCITS Yes
EU-SD Status Out of Scope
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 57,3 M€
Dividend capitalisation
PEA (France) Yes
SRD (France) Yes
Currency Risk Low
Number of Holdings 34
Risk 3/5

 

 

 

 

 

 

Country Breakdown

United Kingdom 28%
Germany 23%
Switzerland 17%
France 12%
Italy 5%
Finland 5%

Sector Breakdown

Financials 100%

Top Ten Holdings

Allianz 17%
AXA 11%
Prudential 10%
Zurich Ins. Group 8%
Muenchener Rueckver 6%
Swiss Re 5%
Aviva 5%
Sampo OYJ 5%
Assicurazioni Generali 4%
Legal and General Group 4%