Our Market analysis: 10/03/2018

This week was marked by a great hesitation before the US markets finally decide to opt for the rise.

The week was marked by two major events, the first being the ratification by D.Trump protectionist measures on aluminum and steel that will ultimately affect mainly Europe and China, in the background of resignation of the chief economic adviser of President, Gary Kohn, Tax Plan Architect and supporter of free trade. But the measured reaction of China and Europe who want to avoid a trade war at all costs, soothes markets that expect symbolic responses but without consequences for world trade.

Aluminum does not benefit from US measurements: JJU (ETN iPath Aluminum), weekly data

The other event that weighed favorably on Asian stock markets is the announcement of a summit meeting between North Korea and the US in May, which greatly eases tensions at least in the short term on the Korean peninsula.

Corporate results continue to fuel a positive newsflow in both Europe and the US, while the US monthly unemployment statistic has reassured inflation while confirming the momentum of US growth. All this gives the final a Stoxx600 up 3.1%, a S & P500 which is up 3.5% and long US rates that remain on their levels of 2.9%.

US Tech, up as always: IGV (iShares US tech software), weekly data

Markets are not yet ready for a major correction, but the theme of inflation and long-term rates is here to stay, and that of US protectionism is likely to have some ups and downs. Volatility should therefore continue to hold surprises (on the rise). The oil continues to fall on bad statistics of US stocks to go up a few days later, which shows that the impact of strong demand and the limits of supply from 2019 start to be included in prices.

No big change on the currency front, the Euro / USD remains stable at 1.23.