This week saw the rebound in most world markets, both in Europe, with a rise of + 1.8% for the Stoxx600, in the US ( S & P500 + 1.4%) and even more sharply in the Emerging countries (EEM, MSCI Emerging Markets : + 3.5%).
MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) : weekly charts
This movement was caused once again by a Central Bank, but this time it is the FED, whose President Janet Yellen believes that one should expect 'not so much more rate hikes', which was immediately interpreted by the markets as the fact that a third rate rise in 2017 was no longer required and that it might not happen. The FED is currently concerned by persistently low inflation, despite the fact that the US economy is close to full employment, which is linked not only to weak oil, but also to more structural factors such as technology (robotics, digitisation of the economy) and globalization, which makes it possible to arbitrate geographies by putting them into competition.
However, market signals seem to indicate an acceleration of US growth is on the cards, it is in particular the Dow Jones Transportation which generates new historic highs, and which is seen as a leading indicator. Moreover, the mining sector is currently very high, which gives credit to the theme of reflation of the economy. Only the oil, which recovered this week by nearly 4.4%, remains in a downward long term trend because of a problem of oversupply (oil shale) and not demand, at least in the short term.
iShares Transportation (IYT) : weekly charts
Gold did not rebound much this week (+ 1.3%) despite the FED and the setback of Donald Trump again accused of collusion with Russia. The euro is benefiting from this context to continue to hold up well against USD (€/$ : 1.147) and appears ready to overcome the resistance of 1.15 which appears likely if European rates continue their catching up with the US.
Moreover, there is increasing talk of transition in Great Britain, which means that an additional period (2 years) Will probably be decided in order to complete negotiations, if the terms of the Brexit are properly triggered in particular with regard to the exit cheque claimed by the EU. orporate earnings are expected in mass from next week in the United States and Europe, and will probably decide whether to prolongnot of this market rebound, especially if good annual outlook is confirmed.
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This week saw the rebound in most world markets, both in Europe, with a rise of + 1.8% for the Stoxx600, in the US ( S & P500 + 1.4%) and even more sharply in the Emerging countries (EEM, MSCI Emerging Markets : + 3.5%).
MSCI Emerging Markets (EEM) : weekly charts
This movement was caused once again by a Central Bank, but this time it is the FED, whose President Janet Yellen believes that one should expect 'not so much more rate hikes', which was immediately interpreted by the markets as the fact that a third rate rise in 2017 was no longer required and that it might not happen. The FED is currently concerned by persistently low inflation, despite the fact that the US economy is close to full employment, which is linked not only to weak oil, but also to more structural factors such as technology (robotics, digitisation of the economy) and globalization, which makes it possible to arbitrate geographies by putting them into competition.
However, market signals seem to indicate an acceleration of US growth is on the cards, it is in particular the Dow Jones Transportation which generates new historic highs, and which is seen as a leading indicator. Moreover, the mining sector is currently very high, which gives credit to the theme of reflation of the economy. Only the oil, which recovered this week by nearly 4.4%, remains in a downward long term trend because of a problem of oversupply (oil shale) and not demand, at least in the short term.
iShares Transportation (IYT) : weekly charts
Gold did not rebound much this week (+ 1.3%) despite the FED and the setback of Donald Trump again accused of collusion with Russia. The euro is benefiting from this context to continue to hold up well against USD (€/$ : 1.147) and appears ready to overcome the resistance of 1.15 which appears likely if European rates continue their catching up with the US.
Moreover, there is increasing talk of transition in Great Britain, which means that an additional period (2 years) Will probably be decided in order to complete negotiations, if the terms of the Brexit are properly triggered in particular with regard to the exit cheque claimed by the EU. orporate earnings are expected in mass from next week in the United States and Europe, and will probably decide whether to prolongnot of this market rebound, especially if good annual outlook is confirmed.