Our Market Analysis : 21/10/2017

This week was more mixed on the European markets, with a slight decrease (-0.3%) for the Stoxx600NR, attributable once again to Catalonia and the imminent triggering of an unprecedented procedure by the Spanish government (Article 155) which would put an end to the autonomy of the richest region of Spain, and would raise even more the level of tension already high in the Iberian Peninsula.

It did not, however, impact the Euro which remains stable against the dollar at around 1.18.

In the United States, the markets continue to rise and set historical records as the "Trump trade" seems to have been reactivated. The debate over tax cuts in the United States is progressing and has become one of the main topics in the markets so much so that the Secretary of the Treasury, Steve Mnuchin even stirred the threat of a stock market crash, in case of failure or delay on tax reform. US markets are strengthening week after week, (the Dow Jones has jumped 23,000 pts this week) and therefore firmly believe in this tax cut whose impact on corporate profits should be significant. Support for this tax reform seems to be growing and it seems certain that it will not be blocked by the congress, despite the $ 1.5 trillion that it will have to pay for the next ten years.

Dow Jones at the highest : IYY (iShares Dow Jones), weekly data

The season of results has started in the United States and Europe, and for the moment are rather above expectations. The next two weeks will be focused primarily on Q3 publications, while a deluge of corporate results is on the agenda, which should have a potentially significant impact on the markets while valuations are now quite demanding both in the US and  Europe and therefore there should be little tolerance for bad news.

According to the Chinese press, Apple (which weighs nearly 3.7% of the S & P500) would have reduced the orders for the production of the iPhone 8 more than half for the rest of the year, these rumors accredit the thesis of a less successful iPhone 8, released last month. At the same time, Apple seems to be experiencing production difficulties with Iphone X screens, which could disrupt the commercial launch, which weighed on the stock this week. Oil prices edged down this week as a result of profit taking after two weeks of gains.

Japan goes to the polls this Sunday with polls suggesting that current Prime Minister Shinzo Abe should win a landslide victory. Abe called early elections, which could allow him to continue his leadership until 2021, to consolidate his position, change the constitution and proceed to an increase in VAT. The index is at its highest, however the country's proportional voting system can create a surprise.  

The Nikkei bets on a reelection of Shinzo Abe : ETF JPN (Topix - Lyxor), weekly data