Our Market Analysis : 23/09/2017

The stoxx600 NR, which broke its trading range last week, continued to rise by 0.68% this week after the publication of a strong PMI activity indices in the Eurozone, notably in France and Germany.

Germany, which is about to vote on Sunday, but there is little suspense, Chancellor Merkel having a very strong lead over his main rival Mr Schulz (SPD), all the uncertainty lies in the coalition which will depend on the scores of the different parties including that of Mrs Merkel, the CDU.

An important event was the FED intervention this week, which was well perceived by the markets, as Yellen confirmed her confidence in the US economy and warned that a third rate hike is in the pipe, the Fed's balance sheet would gradually begin to deleverage in October, giving more visibility to the markets. This more "hawkish" position is likely to be appreciated by the Republicans, while Ms. Yellen ends her term in February 2018, and that Mr Trump has not yet decided to reappoint her or to find a successor. Following this announcement, US 10-year yields strengthened, and German rates remained stable, allowing European banks to continue their rebound this week. The dollar have not benefited much from this announcement, with a brief move on 1.18 before closing the week again around 1.20 after European PMIs above expectations.

This week resulted in renewed tension between the US and its foes, Iran and North Korea, who threatened to send an H-bomb to the Pacific in response to D.Trump's speech at the UN. which has had very little impact on markets that are currently not betting on a military conflict.

On the raw materials front, oil continues its rebound started a few weeks ago and consolidation continued on some metals (Copper, Nickel ...) but others such as aluminum are progressing significantly.

Oil (ETF PowerShares DBO) no more bearish?  (Weekly data)

Aluminum (ETN iPath JJU) is in strong momentum (weekly data)