Our Market Analysis: 27/01/2018

European indices ended stable (-0.1%) against a rise of 2.2% for the S & P500, while the parity Euro / dollar was finally the star of the week closing at morethan 1.24 to a high of 3 years , after the intervention of US Treasury Secretary Mnuchin who stressed Wednesday in Davos that a "weaker dollar" was "good" for the United States and that in parallel of M.Draghi at the ECB that seems to indicate that nothing will be done to stem the decline of the dollar on the European side, and quite the opposite of the US point of view. As a result, the scenario of the "currency war" resumes momentum.

A new currency war ? (ETFS XBJQ) EURUSD weekly data

This decline in the US dollar resulted in a significant increase in gold this week which hit a peak at $ 1370.

Similarly, oil continues to blaze, with WTI reaching $ 66 while geopolitics weigh in the Middle East and the strength of demand is confirmed.

Emerging countries have benefited from this rise in oil and the decline of the dollar. Brazilian justice rejected Lula's appeal against his conviction. It has even extended its sentence to 12 years instead of 10. Lula is therefore theoretically uneligible and should not be able to stand in the presidential elections even though it is given top polls, the Brazilian Stock Exchange welcomed the confirmation of the conviction of Lula with a rise of nearly 4%.

US long-term yields continue to be firm at 2.63%, and European rates have begun to catch up despite the ECB's accommodative stance on interest rates, the German 10-year has already risen to 0.55%. This had the effect of favoring banks this week (BNK: + 1.2%). US markets set new highs amid Q4 results so far in line with expectations

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