Italy (MIB) : in progress

Lyxor ETF FTSE MIB - MIB - 19/02/19

Short Term strategy: Positive (70%) / trend +
Long Term strategy: Positive (60%) / trend +

Characteristics of the ETF

The ETF MIB (Lyxor FTSE MIB40) created in 11/2003, quoted in Euro on Euronext, replicates the Italian national index, composed of the 40 main Italian stocks. The composition of the index is determined on the basis of three criteria: float, liquidity and the representativeness of the main sectors of the Italian market.

ETF MIB fees are 0.35%, in line with the average observed for these products and the amount under management is approximately € 425M. Replication is indirect (via swap) and there is a dividend distribution policy. This ETF is eligible for PEA.

Alternative ETFs: EWI (iShares USD), IMIB (iShares in Euro)

Index & components

This index has the particularity of being very overweight in financials, which represent more than one third (34%) of its composition (against about 20% for stoxx600), including Intesa San Paolo, Unicredit and Generali, while the energy is also significant weighting (18%) via ENI and Saipem. Other important sectors are cyclical consumer goods (13%) and utilities (17%), including Enel, SNAM and Atlantia.

The 10 largest caps represent just over two-thirds of the index.

The Italian index is very volatile, given the importance of cyclical and financial sectors and the structural weakness of the Italian economy due to lack of growth, high unemployment and huge debt (134% of GDP) which regularly worries the markets.

The Italian economy has been hit hard by the financial crisis: it has contracted by more than 9% since 2007 and has faced 13 quarters of recession. Although the Italian economy has emerged from the recession since 2015, growth remains below the euro area average.

Italy made good progress in its banking restructuring in 2017 with the rescue of the Veneta banks by the State and the recovery of the assets by Intesa Sanpaolo, which followed the rescue of BMPS, as well as the refinancing of Unicredit for 13md. € in the first quarter of 2017.

Overall, structural factors (banking system reforms and labor flexibility) are taking shape, and the economic cycle is accelerating. The election of a populist government fuels the fear of a potential halt to reforms and a possible surge in the budget deficit.

The Euro / USD exchange rate remains a significant factor for the Italian economy driven by exports


Last developments

The Italian index fell by 16.5% in 2018, significantly underperforming the stoxx600NR (-10.7%) due to market mistrust of a populist government that refused to submit to the financial discipline required by Brussels and proposed a budget which provided for a budget deficit of 2.7%. However, the Italian government finally heard reason and revised its budget and deficit programmed to 2%. This turnaround has put pressure on Italy, and in particular on long-term rates, which after reaching 3.7% have now returned to 2.80%.

This episode has led to a recession in Italy, but the situation seems to be recovering gradually which is reflected in a rise of the MIB index of 10.3% YTD.

However, diplomatic tensions with France and Europe put the Italian economy at risk by curbing foreign investment.

Weekly data


On the weekly chart, there is a  trend reversal that is confirmed with the bullish breakout of the bearish line and the passing of the EMA26 at the same time. The technical oscillators have also turned upward. Significant resistance are coming  short term with the EMAs100 and 200 located at the 20500 pts level which is pivotal, because it delimits quite clearly the medium term trend.


Daily data

The daily chart shows a clearly positive short-term trend but that is coming on a major resistance represented by the EMA200. The crossing of this resistance is key to the continuation of the trend, as it has often been the case in recent months, up (in dec 2017) and down (in May 2018). Exceeding this level would transform the current rebound into a medium-term trend reversal and will constitute a buy signal.



MIB is a UCITS ETF, listed in EUR, which seeks to replicate the Italian FTSE MIB40 (40 companies)


Inception date 04/11/2003
Expense ratio 0,35%
Benchmark Indice FTSE MIB
Ticker MIB
ISIN FR0010010827
EU-SD Status Out of scope
Exchange Euronext Paris
PEA (France) Yes
SRD (France) Yes
Dividend Distribution
Assets Under Management 425 M€
Currency Risk No
Number of Holdings 40
Risk 4/5

Country Breakdown

Italy 88%
United Kingdom 8%
Netherlands 3%
Luxemburg 2%

Sector Breakdown

Financials 34%
Energy 18%
Utilities 17%
Consumer discretionary 13%
Industrials 9%
Information Technology 3%
Communication Services 2%
Others 4%

Top Ten Holdings

Enel 13%
ENI 12%
Intesa Sanpaolo 10%
Unicredit 8%
Assicurazioni Generali 6%
Fiat Chrysler 5%
Ferrari 5%
Atlantia 4%
CNH Industrial 3%
Snam Spa 3%