Nasdaq100 index (NDX) : Short Term correction coming?

Nasdaq 100 index - 25/03/19

Short Term trend: Positive (75/100)
Long Term trend: Positive (85/100)

(scores computed by our proprietary algorithms)

Index profile

The interest of this index lies in the fact of taking a diversified bet but concentrated on the most beautiful technological stocks, giving a good share to the "GAFAM" (Google, Apple, Facebook, Amazon and Microsoft) which represent c.43% of the capitalization.

The index is particularly influenced by Apple's prices, which fluctuate according to the success of its new smartphones.

Note that large technology stocks have generally performed very well in 2017, especially GAFA but also semiconductors (Intel) and Microsoft,  but experienced a sharp correction in the last quarter 2018.

The volatility of the index is historically not very marked (despite current high volatility), which reflects the considerable weight of market capitalizations often above $ 300 billion for the top 10 companies, see $ 500 billion for the top 5.

But the Nasdaq 100 is not just about its top 10 stocks, and the depth of the index makes it possible to invest in companies that are already established but still have a strong appreciation potential like Tesla, Xilinx, Symantec or the US biotech sector.

The hegemonic position of the GAFA in the world begins to provoke reactions, especially in Europe, both on competitive positions or abuse of dominant positions could trigger heavy fines, as for Google but also on taxation while European countries seek to find an agreement to tax the revenues generated on their territory. Chinese competitors are becoming more and more present, such as Alibaba or Tencent, and could soon threaten the supremacy of the leaders of American technology.

The Nasdaq100 ended the year 2018 down -1%, due to a strong end-of-year correction fueled by tensions between China and the US and the monetary policy of the FED. However, the beginning of the year 2019 is marked by a very strong rebound (+ 15.7% in 2019), because of the progress made on the trade between China and the USA, the change of the FED now more flexible on the rhythm of interest rate hike, as well as corporate earnings that were ultimately less negative than expected, allowing for a more moderate adjustment of the consensus for 2019. In particular, the semiconductors sector showed less gloomy prospects, albeit end markets expected to decline, whether it be the automotive industry or the smartphone.

 

Instruments: QQQ (Powershares USD), ANX (Amundi in Euro), UST (Lyxor in Euro), CNDX (iShares in USD)

Technical analysis

Monthly analysis

The monthly chart shows a trend that is once again bullish and seems to be starting to record new highs. The renewed nervousness of the markets in the short term, is not visible on this chart and we must draw the consequences, namely that it is for the moment and until the proof of the opposite of a non-event. From a technical point of view, the EMA13 should play its supporting role in case of a minor withdrawal as it has been the case for almost 10 years.

Weekly analysis

On the weekly chart, we visualize both a medium-term bullish trend and a candlestick that sends a corrective signal to the short-term horizon. The wick of this candle illustrates the renewed nervousness recorded at the end of the week, and the corrective need of the index after 3 months of uninterrupted rise. However, at this stage it is too early to consider anything but a continuation of the uptrend.

Country breakdown

USA 100%

Sector breakdown

Information technology 44%
Communication services 22%
Consumer discretionary 16%
Health Care 8%
Consumer staples 6%
Industrials 2%
Others 2%

Top Ten holdings

Amazon 10%
Microsoft 10%
Apple 10%
Alphabet 9%
Facebook 5%
Intel 3%
Cisco 3%
Comcast 2%
PepsiCo 2%