Dividend Aristocrats US (NOBL) : When quality becomes attractive again

Proshares ETF S&P500 dividend Aristocrats (NOBL) - 13/09/2018

Short Term strategy: Positive (90%) / Trend +
Long Term strategy: Positive (100%) / Trend =

Characteristics of the ETF

The Proshares NOBL ETF created in 09/2013 USD-denominated on the NYSE and replicates the S&P500 Dividend Aristocrats index, composed of 53 equal-weighted stocks and which have increased or maintained their dividends over the past 25 years.

The fee for this ETF is 0.35% and the AUM is approximately $ 3 820M. The replication method is direct and there is a quarterly dividend distribution method.

Alternative ETFS: WDIV (SPDR in USD)

Latest developments

The NOBL ETF rose by 18.8% in 2017, which corresponds roughly to the performance of the S & P500 and rose by 5.2% in 2018 (against + 8% for the S & P500), while technology stocks remain the main driving force and the largest rise in US indices.

However, the major US qualitative values represent an interesting diversification at a time when fears of a trade war between the US and China are leading to fears of a decline in global growth. US qualitative values could play a safe haven role if growth stocks are constrained by the trade war that is emerging.

The diversity of the sectors of the index offers good protection against a possible decline in world trade with values likely to benefit from the strength of the US market, particularly in the health sector.

Index & Components

The NOBL (Proshares) tracker replicates the performance of the S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index, composed of S & P 500 companies that have increased or maintained their dividend over a period of at least 25 years.

This index includes 53 values, which are equal-weighted. It also includes a sector constraint, with one sector accounting for a maximum of 30% of the portfolio. Among the main sectors represented are consumer staples (24%), industrial sector (20%), health sector (11%) and consumer discretionary (12%). There are flagship values ​​such as Johnson & Johnson, ATT, Chevron, 3M, Procter & Gamble, as well as slightly less well-known values ​​that have the same characteristics.

This ETF has many interests: it is invested in one of the most dynamic markets in the world, the USA, by nature it incorporates companies with solid and recurring results and it is invested in many sectors, including a number of growth sectors. It is therefore an excellent support as part of a long-term strategy. Another asset of this ETF is the lower historical volatility compared to the benchmark (S & P500). NOBL generally behaves quite well during periods of market consolidation and benefits in this case from the so-called "flight to quality" because in a context of more uncertain growth, the regularity of dividends is seen as an asset.

After a sharp rise in US indices, in the wake of the US election and an already fairly mature economic cycle in the US, this ETF seems to us a preferred medium in a context that becomes more tense at the geopolitical level and from a valuations point of view. NOBL has the advantage of quality which can better justify a demanding valuation (currently 20x results at 12 months) which cannot be applicable to all sectors. In the event of a correction, we expect NOBL to outperform the market.

Monthly data

The monthly chart shows a positive long-term trend index, which after a correction halted in the spring by the EMA13 is about to return to the level of the historic highs reached at the beginning of the year. The increase is this time more regular and less impulsive which means that it is probably more solid and more sustainable. However, the January 2018 level is the main resistance

Weekly data

The weekly chart shows an index that is rising again over the medium term horizon after a sharp correction that has been contained by the EMAs 13 & 26. The EMA100 remains up and well below price which confirms the positive configuration . Oscillators follow the movement while being far from overbought levels, leaving a significant residual upside potential.

ETF Objective

NOBL is an ETF listed in USD, and which seeks to replicate the S&P500 Dividend Aristocrats index (53 US companies)


Inception date 10/09/2013
Expense ratio 0,35%
Benchmark S&P500 Dividend Aristocrat
Code/Ticker NOBL
Issuer ProShares
ISIN US74348A4673
CUSIP 74348A467
Currency Dollar
Exchange NYSE
Assets under Management 3 821 M$
Dividend Distribution
Currency Risk No
Number of Holdings 53
Risk 3/5

Country Breakdown

USA 100%

Sector Breakdown

Consumer Staples 25%
Industrials 21%
Materials 11%
Health Care 11%
Consumer Discretionary 11%
Financials 9%
Energy 4%
Autres 9%

Top Ten Holdings

Clorox Co 2%
Lowe's Cos 2%
Hormel Foods Corp 2%
Emerson Electric Co 2%
Mccormick & Co 2%
Target Corp 2%
Dover Corp 2%
Ecolab Inc 2%
Kimberly-Clark Corp 2%
Wal-Mart Stores 2%