Dividend Aristocrats US (NOBL) : A rebound in process

Proshares ETF S&P500 dividend Aristocrats (NOBL) - 28/12/2018

Short Term strategy: Negative (0%) / Trend =
Long Term strategy: Negative (30%) / Trend -

Characteristics of the ETF

The Proshares NOBL ETF created in 09/2013 USD-denominated on the NYSE and replicates the S & P 500® Dividend Aristocrats® index, composed of 53 equal-weighted stocks and which have increased or maintained their dividends over the past 25 years.

The fee for this ETF is 0.35% and the AUM is approximately $ 3337M. The replication method is direct and there is a quarterly dividend distribution method.

Alternative ETF: WDIV (SPDR in USD)

Latest developments

The NOBL ETF grew by 18.8% in 2017, which corresponds roughly to the performance of the S & P500 and recorded a fall of -7.3% in 2018 (versus -7.7% for the S & P500), but since at the beginning of October, NOBL lost 11.7% against 16% for the S & P500 and behaves better during this phase of correction.

The major US qualitative values currently play a role of safe haven, as they offer high dividends and resistance against growth stocks that could be more impacted by an economic slowdown or a worsening of the trade war between the US and the US. China, which is also valid for the GAFAs (absent from this index) which are currently the driving force behind the decline in the US markets.

Index & Components

The NOBL (Proshares) tracker replicates the performance of the S & P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index, composed of S & P 500 companies that have increased or maintained their dividend over a period of at least 25 years.

This index includes 53 values, which are equal-weighted. It also includes a sector constraint, with one sector accounting for a maximum of 30% of the portfolio. Among the main sectors represented are consumer staples (24%), industrial sector (21%), health sector (12%) and consumer discretionary (11%). There are flagship values ​​such as Johnson & Johnson, ATT, Chevron, 3M, Procter & Gamble, as well as slightly less well-known values ​​that have the same characteristics.

This ETF has many interests: it is invested in one of the most dynamic markets in the world, the USA, by nature it incorporates companies with solid and recurring results and it is invested in many sectors, including a number of growth sectors. It is therefore an excellent support as part of a long-term strategy. Another asset of this ETF is the lower historical volatility compared to the benchmark (S & P500).

NOBL generally behaves quite well during periods of market consolidation and benefits in this case from the so-called "flight to quality" because in a context of more uncertain growth, the regularity of dividends is seen as an asset. After a sharp rise in US indices, in the wake of the US election and an already fairly mature economic cycle in the US, this ETF seems to us a preferred medium in a context that becomes more tense at the geopolitical level and from a valuations point of view. NOBL has the advantage of quality which can better justify a demanding valuation (currently 18x results at 12 months) which cannot be applicable to all sectors. In the event of a correction, we expect NOBL to outperform the market.

Monthly data

The monthly chart shows a good resistance index until December, which was marked by a powerfull bearish candlestick that crossed all moving averages (EMAs13,20 & 26). However, there are still 2 trading sessions that could change the reading of this candlestick, especially if the wick that just appeared was gaining importance, making possible an upward reaction in January.

Weekly data

The weekly chart shows the fall of the index since the beginning of December, but also a bullish reaction in the shape of a hammer that comes to rely on the EMA200. The confirmation of this figure at the end of the week is key and if confirmed, could trigger a rebound in the days that follow. However, the medium-term trend remains bearish.


NOBL is an ETF listed in USD, which seeks to replicate the S&P500 Dividend Aristocrats (53 US companies)


Inception date 10/09/2013
Expense ratio 0,35%
Benchmark S&P500 Dividend Aristocrat
Code/Ticker NOBL
Issuer ProShares
ISIN US74348A4673
CUSIP 74348A467
Currency Dollar
Exchange NYSE
Assets Under Management 3 300 M$
Dividend Distribution
Currency risk No
Number of Holdings 53
Risk 3/5

Country Breakdown

USA 100%

Sector Breakdown

Consumer Staples 24%
Industrials 21%
Health Care 12%
Consumer Discretionary 11%
Financials 10%
Materials 10%
Energy 4%
Others 6%

Top Ten Holdings

AbbVie 2%
Kimberly-Clarck Corp 2%
Air Products & Chemicals 2%
Cincinnati Financial 2%
Stanley Black & Decker 2%
Abbott Laboratories 2%
Aflac Inc 2%
Illinois Tool Works 2%
PPG Industries 2%
W W Grainger 2%