Consumer Goods Europe (PHG) : Signs of short-term weakness

Lyxor ETF Personal & Households Goods (PHG) - 22/06/17

Short Term Strategy : Neutral
Long Term Strategy : Positive

Characteristics of the ETF

PHG (Lyxor) replicates the Stoxx Europe 600 consumer goods index (SXQR) which is composed of the major European stocks in this sector.

This index is relatively concentrated, with only 36 values. The index is mainly composed of large caps, ranging from 40 to 100 bn €for the first 10 companies. The consumer goods sectors include companies dedicated to luxury goods (Richemond, LVMH) but also hygiene and beauty products (L'Oreal, Reckitt, Henkel, etc.), the first capitalisation being a cigarette maker (British American Tobacco). The performance of the index has been 17.5% since the beginning of the year, following a long trading range (+ 3% in 2016), which succeeded a 23% rise in 2015. This is the 8th consecutive year of increase since 2009.

The PHG ETF bears costs of 0.3% which are in the market average. Assets Under Management are 117 M€.

The Index is composed of high qualitative companies that have the characteristics of having very strong brands, which allow them to benefit from a steady growth that is often higher than global GDP, with strong associated margins (operating income> 20%). Moreover, these companies are relatively uncyclical, which gives them a defensive aspect during crises. Therefore, the risk/return ratio is very interesting in this sector. Industry players often have relatively large exposure to emerging markets, particularly Asia where growth is on the increase. They are therefore likely to be impacted by fears of a slowdown in the region, or by a fall in major Asian currencies, the Yen and the Renminbi. It is worth noting that more than half of the index is UK stocks, which implies a strong exposure to the sterling. However, this risk is limited because the exposure of these companies is primarily global with a limited % of operations in the UK.

The index rose by nearly 23% in 6 months and is now in the high zone despite the negative impact of the sterling, which lost 4% against the euro over the past two months. This good performance was driven by strong growth in stocks like Unilever (+ 37% in 6 months) or LVMH (+ 75% in 1 year), while the 1st capitalisation, BATS, also performed well (+ 29% in 6 months). These good performances are linked to an Asian recovery, in particular China, the EU's favourable base effect, good US performance and good prospects for global growth.

PHG is part of our Megatrend Euro portfolio since 6/12/16 and has increased by 23% since 6/12/16.

Monthly data

The analysis of monthly charts shows a very strong index, with the upward momentum that has not been challenged since 2009. After a time-out phase in 2015/16 due to the Chinese situation (notably the slowdown in growth and the anti-corruption Act), PHG recovered sharply by the end of 2016. The limits of the momentum now seem to be reached, with candles becoming increasingly small and a stalling structure in June which remains to be confirmed at closure. A correction towards the moving averages is likely.

 

Weekly data

The analysis of weekly charts confirms the fading momentum. New highs look difficult to achieve, and moving averages are beginning to flatten. The most credible signal, however, comes from the weekly MACD, which has just gone down after 6 months of rise. This warning is to be taken seriously as he probably announced a correction.

This will be at best a ‘flat’ correction and will form a trading range will either test the resilience of €90 resistance level, our preferred scenario.

ETF Objective

PHG is a UCITS compliant ETF that aims to track the benchmark index Stoxx Europe 600 Personal & Household Goods Net Return.

Characteristics

Inception date 18/08/2006
Expenses 0,3%
Benchmark indice stoxx 600 P&H Goods
Code / Ticker PHG
Issuer Lyxor
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 117 M€
Replication method Indirect (via a swap)
PEA (France) Yes
SRD (France) Yes
Dividend Capitalisation
Currency Risk Yes
Number of Holdings 35
Risk 2/5

 

Country Breakdown

United Kingdom 54%
France 19%
Germany 10%
Switzerland 7%
Sweden 4%
Denmark 2%
Others 4%

Sector Breakdown

Consumer Staples 61%
Consumer Discretionary 36%
Others 3%

Top Ten Holdings

British American Tobacco 16%
Unilever NV 11%
Unilever PLC 9%
LVMH 9%
Reckitt Benckiser Group 8%
L'Oreal 6%
Imperial Brands 5%
Richemont 5%
Adidas 4%
Henkel 3%