World Private Equity (PVX) : is it time for consolidation?

Lyxor ETF Privex (PVX) - 18/08/2017

Short term strategy : Negative (20%) / Trend +
Long term strategy : Positive (60%) / Trend +

Characteristics of the ETF

The ETF PRIVEX index is representative of a portfolio of investment companies or listed funds whose main activity is to manage investments in private equity companies at different stages of their development.

In addition, the Privex ETF includes holding companies such as Investor, which has interests in Nordic listed companies such as Atlas Copco, Alfa Laval and Enskilda.

The index is composed of 24 Private Equity companies that operate in major global economies, Japan, the USA, Canada, Switzerland and the United Kingdom. In fact, it is a Global Private Equity Index, which is selected by the most renowned companies in the field.

Private Equity benefits from the low interest rate environment, which allows it to benefit from high leverage, these are companies that are considered as financials. Moreover, Private Equity benefits from innovation and new paradigms, which tend to expand with the "uberization" of many sectors, it is therefore a sector of the future that is essential for start-ups to finance their development.

We consider this investment to be part of a long-term strategy. However, this theme is sensitive to long-term rates and could suffer from a potential rapid rise in the US or Europe, which is not our central scenario given the structural deflationary pressures (technology, Emerging markets, lower commodity prices).

This ETF achieved a performance of 13.7% in 2016 and has increased by 8.6% since the beginning of the year, while the 0.7% fee is slightly above the average of our sample and liquidity amounts to approximately € 106 million.

However, this index may be subject to significant periods of volatility during periods when the financial system is involved, as in 2011 (sovereign debt crisis in Europe) or more recently in early 2016 with the episode of high yields crisis following the sharp decline in oil prices. The current period, punctuated by geopolitical uncertainties and the Korean crisis in the first place, is a trigger for consolidation because a military conflict in Southeast Asia would be potentially devastating for the economy and the global financial system on which is based the Private Equity business.

Monthly data

The long-term chart remains undeniably bullish but the uptrend active since the summer of 2016 is being consolidated after the summit of last June. This consolidation remains very moderate, as prices are currently at around 4% of the peak. As in the previous corrections phases, prices should test the support represented by the monthly EMA13, without technical consequences.

Weekly data

The weekly chart shows a relative weakening of the uptrend, which is characterized by a “round top” structure, which is visible on both the prices and the MACD. Except fast rebound, the correction could continue for some time. Medium-term usual support is characterized by the weekly EMA100, but in the event of a serious crisis (as at the beginning of 2016) the weekly EMA200 may finally prove to be the major support.

ETF Objective

PVX is a UCITS compliant ETF that aims to track the benchmark index Privex TR (24 companies).

Characteristics

Inception date 05/01/2007
Expenses 0,70%
Issuer Lyxor
Benchmark Private Equity Total Return Index
Ticker PVX
ISIN FR0010407197
UCITS Yes
EU-SD Status Out of scope
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 109 M€
Dividend distribution
PEA (France) No
SRD (France) Yes
Currency Risk Yes
Number of Holdings 24
Risk 3/5

Country Breakdown

Sweden 25%
Canada 19%
Japan 17%
United Kingdom 12%
USA 8%
Switzerland 8%
France 5%
Belgium 5%

Sector Breakdown

Financials 100%

Top Ten Holdings

Investor 19%
Brookfield AM 15%
Orix Corp 14%
Partner Group 8%
3i Group 8%
Ares Capital 5%
Investment AB 5%
Onex Corporation 4%
Wendel 3%