Europe Technology (TNO) : Positive trend right on track

Lyxor ETF Stoxx 600 Technology (TNO) - 12/03/19

Short Term strategy: Positive (90%)
Long Term strategy: Positive (90%)

Characteristics of the ETF

The ETF Lyxor TNO (Technology Europe UCITS) created in 08/2006, is listed in Euro on Euronext and seeks to replicate the index Stoxx Europe 600 Technology (SX8R) which is composed of the 30main European technology stocks.

The costs of this ETF are 0.3% and the AUM approximately 50M€. Replication is indirect (via Swap) and there is a dividend capitalization policy.

 

Index profile

This index is quite concentrated since it has only 30 values. The first four stocks in the index (SAP, ASML Holding, Amadeus and Nokia) account for 55% of the total and have fairly high market capitalizations (€ 115bn for SAP, € 60bn for ASML, €30bn for Amadeus and Nokia).

This sector is characterized by high growth rates and high multiples, but most of the companies that make up the index do not disappoint, and on the contrary regularly revise their prospects upward reflecting very strong market positions, most often world leader with duopoly situation (for SAP) or leading actors (ASML for laser lithography).

The high valuations of this index imply double-digit growth rates over time. However, the long-term themes tend to multiply (Blockchain, AI, Robotics ...) which always feeds more hope of growth.

In 2017, the TNO ETF posted a 21% performance, twice the performance of stoxx600 (10.6%), and +3% in 2018 compared to -10.7% for Stoxx600NR but with a 26% drop in the fourth quarter in the wake of the Nasdaq and GAFAS under strong pressure because of demanding valuation in a context of credit tightening by the FED and trade war between the US and China. A strong rebound occurred in January and February which turned into a positive turnaround in March (+ 12.6% since the beginning of the year), while corporate results were finally reassuring in the semiconductors and software  sectors and specifically better than expected for ASML, Infineon and STMicroelectronics.

The technology sector is sensitive to the evolution of the trade war while some important customer sectors (smartphone and automotive for example) are closely linked to Chinese growth.

Alternative ETFs :  EXV3 (iShares, Euro), SYQ (BNP Paribas Easy, Euro)

 

We are buyers of this ETF (TNO is part of our Megatrend Euro Portfolio)

 

Monthly data

The monthly chart shows a near-full recovery of the long-term trend, after the strong correction at the end of 2018. Prices have returned above the EMA13, technical oscillators are returning to the positive zone, like the RSI above 50. The pattern could be complete if the MACD were to cross upward, but this is a lagging indicator. The index has closed the parenthesis of the correction and resume its bullish trajectory.

Weekly data

On the weekly chart we can visualize the current crossing between EMAs13 and 26 and simultaneously, the passage of the zero line by the MACD which confirms the positive reversal of the trend over the medium term horizon. These signals must however be confirmed at the end of the week to be validated. The index should, after a short break, resume the path of the 2018 peak located at around 55 €.

Theme

TNO is a UCITS ETF, listed in EUR, which seeks to replicate the STOXX Europe 600 Technology Net Return index (30 european companies)

Characteristics

Inception date 18/08/2006
Expense ratio 0,30%
Benchmark SX8R - Stoxx 600 Technology
Ticker TNO
ISIN LU1834988518
UCITS Yes
EU-SD Status Out of scope
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 49 M€
Méthode de réplication Indirecte (via un swap)
Dividende Capitalisé
PEA Oui
SRD Oui
Risque de change Faible
Nombre de sociétés 30
Risque 3/5

Country Breakdown

Germany 35%
Netherlands 19%
France 14%
Sweden 9%
Finland 7%
Spain 7%
United Kingdom 4%
Others 5%

Sector Breakdown

Information Technology 97%
Communication Services 3%

Top Ten Holdings

SAP 25%
ASML Holding 15%
Nokia 7%
Amadeus 7%
Ericsson 6%
Infineon 5%
Cap Gemini 4%
Dassault Systèmes 4%
Hexagon 3%
Micro Focus 2%