Techno Europe (TNO) : The consolidation has begun

Lyxor ETF Stoxx 600 Technology (TNO) - 13/06/2017

Short term Strategy : Neutral
Long term Strategy : Positive

Caracteristics of the ETF

The tracker TNO (Lyxor) seeks to replicate the Stoxx Europe 600 Technology Index (SXXR), wich is constituted with the 24 largest European Technology Companies.

The first three holdings (SAP, ASML Holding and Nokia), account for 53% of the Index and have rather big market capitalizations (€33 billion for Nokia, €50 bn to ASML and €115 billion for SAP). This sector is characterised by growth in revenues  and high multiples, but most of the companies that compose the index are qualitative growth ships that regularly beat market expectations due to very strong market positions, World leader with duopoly for SAP or main actor (ASML) for the Lithography machine-maker.

The technology sector is strategic in the context of new business models and major shifts of paradigms, large movements of modernization, factors of productivity and new services (digitisation, equipment network etc). This growth sector should be one of the big winners in the long run, which makes it eligible to our long term strategy (Megatrend Euro), especially as very qualitative companies besides the three companies already mentionned with position of worldwide leader on their market have high weighting in the index like Dassault Systèmes (3D software), Infineon (electronic components for automobiles) or Sage (software for SMEs). All the companies in this index carry out a large part of their sales in the United States, and thus have a significant exposure to the dollar and the US economy. Some are also present in Asia, particularly in China and Japan. However we believe the direct currency risk is rather low due to the fact that most companies are listed in euro.

The expense ratio of TNO is 0.3%. The fund size is 80 M €, which is not very high, but within the medium/high range of  ETFs European sector.

In 2016, TNO posted a performance of 4%, above  the Stoxx600 (1.7%), despite very heterogeneous performance within the index : Positive especially for SAP, ASML, but negative for others such as Nokia, Infineon Ericsson and Cap Gemini. The prospects for 2017 are positive, but the rise in the euro/USD could, if confirmed, become a drag on earnings growth. The volatility of the tracker is not particularly high but remains influenced by the performance of the Nasdaq, the main market for Technology stocks which  initiate a correction after several months of GAFAs rally, that immediately impacted  the European index.  In a typical profit-taking move as TNO was up nearly 20% since the beginning of the year and while valuations were beginning to be demanding.

Monthly Data

The analysis of the monthly Charts shows the correction has probably started after 6 months of unchallenged rise. The ongoing negative monthly candle is likely to form a downside pattern confirming a medium term correction in process, with the main objective being the MA26exp which is currently located towards €39.

This correction has a potential of around 15%, which could occur during the summer.

Weekly Data

The analysis of medium term charts (weekly basis) brings confirmation that an overthrowing downside move is ongoing. In particular, the MACD is on the verge of  launching a bearish signal that desserve attention. The RSI signal came as a confirmation, as it just came out of its overbought area. The bullish phase to consolidate is rather long, suggesting that the market may need a few more weeks to building a summit structure.

Vigilance is required for TNO in the short-term.

Investment Objective

European technology stocks exposure via a fairly concentrated ETF (24 stocks)

Take advantage of the dynamism of this sector, taking into account the strong growth expectations given the high multiples

Characteristics

Inception date 18/08/2006
TER 0,30%
Benchmark SX8R - Stoxx 600 Technology
Ticker TNO
ISIN FR0010344796
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
UCITS Yes
CUSIP Out os scope
Asset Under Management 80 M€
Replication Method Indirect (swap based)
UCITS Yes
Dividend Capitalisation
PEA (France) Yes
SRD (France) Yes
Currency Risk Low
Number of Holdings 24
Risk 3/5

Country Breakdown

Germany 38%
Netherlands 15%
France 15%
Finland 10%
Sweden 9%
Switzerland 6%
United Kingdom 5%
Others 1%

 

 

Sector Breakdown

Information Technology 98%
Telecom Services 2%

Top Ten Holdings

SAP 28%
ASML Holding 13%
Nokia 10%
Infineon 7%
Ericsson 6%
Cap Gemini 5%
Atos 4%
Dassault Systèmes 3%
Hexagon 3%
STMicroelectronics 3%