Techno Europe (TNO) : End of the correction?

Lyxor ETF Stoxx 600 Technology (TNO) - 18/04/2018

Short Term strategy: Positive (70%) / Trend +
Long Term strategy: Positive (75%) / Trend =

Characteristics of the ETF

The ETF Lyxor TNO (Technology Europe UCITS) created in 08/2006, is listed in Euro on Euronext and seeks to replicate the index Stoxx Europe 600 Technology (SX8R) which is composed of the 27 main European technology stocks.

The costs of this ETF are 0.3% and the AUM approximately 70M€. Replication is indirect (via Swap) and there is a dividend capitalization policy.

Alternative ETFs: EXV3 (iShares in Euro), SYQ (BNP Theam, in Euro)

Latest developments

In 2017, the TNO ETF posted a 21% performance, twice the performance of stoxx600 (10.6%), and in 2018 the increase was only 1.7%.

The European Technology Index has consolidated in the wake of the Nasdaq, while the GAFAs are under pressure from the Facebook scandal on user data, and that Amazon is in the sights of D. Trump who criticizes it for do not pay enough taxes while trade tensions with China also weigh on the sector. However, European companies are not directly affected by these events, which should not have a lasting impact.

In addition, the Euro / dollar parity, which remains stable at around 1.23, is a rather favorable factor for the sector.

 

Index & components

This index is quite concentrated since it has only 27 holdings. The first four stocks in the index (SAP, ASML Holding, Infineon and Nokia) alone account for 56% of the total and have fairly high market capitalizations (€ 107n for SAP, € 71bn for ASML, € 25bn for Infineon and € 25bn for Nokia).

This sector is characterized by high growth rates and high multiples, but most of the companies that make up the index do not disappoint, and on the contrary regularly revise their prospects upward due to very strong positions, most often world leader with duopoly situation (for SAP) or leading actor (ASML) for laser lithography.

The technological sector is key in the context of major industrial changes and is part of major modernization / productivity factors and new services (digitization, new generation network equipment etc ...). This sector should be one of the big winners of global growth, which makes it eligible for our long-term strategy (Megatrend Euro), especially since very qualitative companies - apart from three companies already mentioned - and in a position of No. 1 worldwide in their segment are heavily weighted like Dassault Systèmes (3D digital model), or Sage (software for SMEs).

All companies in this index account for a large share of their sales in the US and therefore have significant exposure to the dollar and the US economy, some are also present in Asia, particularly in China and Japan. However, we consider that the direct currency risk is low because most companies are listed in euros. The volatility of this tracker is not particularly high and is very influenced by the evolution of the Nasdaq, market leader of technology stocks and of course GAFAs, Apple's developments have a lot of impact on the technology compartment in general and on its supply chain in particular (electronic components such as Dialog or AMS).

The high valuations of this index imply double-digit growth rates over time. However, the long-term themes tend to multiply (Blockchain, AI, Robotics ...) which always feeds more hope of growth.

Monthly data

The monthly chart shows a long-term bullish trend in the correction phase, and a positive reaction of the index in contact with the EMA13 which causes a significant rebound on the month of April, likely in case of confirmation, to revive the background trend. However, the MACD has crossed lower and moving averages tend to flatten. It will therefore take some continuity / confirmation of the rise in the coming weeks to really reactivate the bullish movement.

Weekly data

On the weekly chart, we can see a bullish reaction of the index for 3 weeks, which ends up a positive recovery above the EMA13 and 26. This recovery must be confirmed, notably by the technical oscillators, which is already the case for the RSI, but also by the slope of the moving averages. There is strong resistance in the 50/51 € zone which is the key to a new bullish wave.

ETF Objective

TNO is a UCITS ETF which seeks to replicate the STOXX Europe 600 Technology Net Return (27 european companies)

Characteristics

Inception date 18/08/2006
Expense ratio 0,30%
Benchmark SX8R - Stoxx 600 Technology
Ticker TNO
ISIN FR0010344796
UCITS Yes
EU-SD Status Out of scope
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 70 M€
Replication method Indirect (via a swap)
Dividend Capitalization
PEA (France) Yes
SRD (France)  Yes
Currency risk low
Number of holdings 27
Risk 3/5

Country Breakdown

Germany 38%
Netherlands 22%
France 16%
Sweden 8%
Finland 7%
United Kingdom 4%
Switzerland 3%
Others 2%

Sector Breakdown

Information technology 99%
Telecom services 1%

Top Ten Holdings

SAP 27%
ASML Holding 15%
Infineon 7%
Nokia 7%
Cap Gemini 5%
Ericsson 4%
Hexagon AB 4%
Dassault Systèmes 4%
STmicroelectronics 3%
Atos 3%