World Water (WAT) : A long calm river ?

Lyxor ETF World Water (WAT) -12/12/2017

Short Term strategy : Positive (100%) / Trend +

Long Term strategy : Positive (80%) / Trend +

Characteristics of the ETF

The Lyxor WAT ETF (UCITS), created in 10/2007 is listed in Euro on Euronext and replicates the World Water Index CW Net Total Return index which is calculated by Dow Jones from a selection of values ​​made by SAM (Sustainable Asset Management, a management company specializing in sustainable development created in 1995). Stocks ​​are weighted by market capitalization, but to maintain effective diversification, no stock can weigh more than 10%. The index is revised every 6 months and rebalanced quarterly. It is a global index composed of 20 stocks, of which 49% are quoted in USD and only 9% in Euro, so the currency risk is significant.

The costs of this ETF are 0.6% and the AUM is approximately € 622M. The replication method is indirect (via a swap) and there is a dividend distribution method.

Alternative ETFs: IH2O (Ishares in USD), PHO (Powershares in USD), CGW (Guggenheim in USD).

 

Index & components

The WAT tracker gives the investor access to a basket of 20 international securities specializing in the production and distribution of water. These values ​​are for 41.9% US, and for the other half Asian (Japan 10%, China 5%) and European (UK 19%, Switzerland 8.8%, France 8.8). This ETF is listed on the Paris Stock Exchange, but with a high exposure to foreign currencies (especially USD, Pound Sterling and Swiss Franc).

Companies with different activities are included in this index: there are specialists in water distribution and utilities (Veolia, American Water Works ...), companies specializing in technologies related to the water cycle who manufacture pumps and filtration and distribution systems (Xylem, Pentair ...), while other companies are more exposed to construction (Plumbing...).

The historical performance of this ETF is clearly positive since its launch in October 2007 (multiplication by 2.3x) and higher than that of the S & P500 and Stoxx600, which can be explained by the theme itself which benefits from powerful long-term catalysts (demography, urbanization, development of emerging countries), but also by financial dynamics: these companies have usually a very high capital structure that involves significant debt, they are therefore sensitive to interest rates. The fall in interest rates, which has increased significantly since the 2009 financial crisis, has had a very positive effect on these companies, which have been able to finance their investments at a lower cost. A lasting and unfavorable change in interest rates could end up being negative for the sector.

This theme is promising for the long term, as the scarcity of resources coupled with the heavy demographic and urban trends offer a considerable market for these companies.

 

Latest developments

Since March 2009, WAT has been multiplied by more than 4; it grew by 8.5% in 2016 and for the moment by 10.6% in 2017. This upward progression is very regular and is achieved with little volatility which reinforces its attractiveness.

The theme of the reflation of the economy, and the rate hike has had a fairly negative impact on the index but seems to be dissipating while the US and European long rates remain very stable and at a very low level. In addition, we believe that the potential for rate appreciation is rather limited in the medium term, due to powerful deflationary factors (technology / globalization). The model of concession companies and water infrastructure should not be challenged any time soon.

Donald Trump's tax plan is positive for WAT as it is made up of 42% of US stocks that should fully benefit from the corporate tax cut of 35% to 20%, once the law is finally ratified by the congress.

Monthly data

The monthly chart shows a positive long-term trend that is progressing steadily, although the momentum seems less strong since 2015 which is characterized by the MACD which remains negative but nevertheless well above its zero line. WAT is making a new upward swing that should allow it to achieve new highs. All indicators are positive and an acceleration of the index is not excluded.

Weekly data

On the weekly chart, we can see that WAT regularly comes back to its EMA100 before starting up again to realize a new upward swing. WAT is currently located at the level of the 37 € resistance which should yield shortly. The oscillations correspond to regular movements of a certain magnitude (20% and more). The EMA100is therefore key, it corresponds to both a purchase level and its bearish breakout would have strongly negative implications for the underlying trend.

 

ETF Objective

WAT is a UCITS ETF which replicates the benchmark index World Water CW Net Total Return (20 companies)

Characteristics

Inception date 10/10/2007
Expense ratio 0,60%
Issuer Lyxor
Benchmark World Water CW Net Total Return

Ticker WAT
ISIN FR0010527275
UCITS Yes
EU-SD status Out of Scope
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 627 M€
Dividend Distribution
Currency Risk Yes
Number of Holdings 20
Risk 3/5

Répartition géographique

USA 42%
Royaume Uni 19%
Suisse 10%
Japon 9%
France 9%
Hong Kong 5%
Corée du Sud 3%
Brésil 2%
Chili 1%

Sector Breakdown

Industrials 57%
Utilities 40%
Consumer discretionary 3%

Top Ten Holdings

American Water Works 10%
Geberit 9%
Veolia Environnement 9%
Masco Corp 8%
Xylem Inc 8%
Pentair 7%
Smith Corp 6%
Toto Ltd 5%
Lixil Group Corporation 5%
United Utilities Group 5%