Media Europe (MDA) : The long-term trend is threatened

Lyxor ETF Media Europe - MDA - 12/07/2017

Short term strategy : Negative (10%) / Trend -
Long term strategy : Positive (60%) / Trend -

Characteristics of the ETF

The ETF MDA (Lyxor) replicates the Stoxx Europe 600 Media (SXRR) index, which is composed of the main European media stocks.

This index is rather narrow since it has only 26 holdings. It is essentially composed of market capitalizations between €5 and 30 bn. What is most interesting is the wide variety of sub-sectors: WPP and Publicis are advertisers in full digital transformation, ITV or SKY are broadcasters, therefore content distributors who increasingly want to ensure their own production to face US giants like Netflix. This index also includes companies such as RELX Group (Reed Elsevier) or Wolters Kluwer, which are publishers of specialized information and content (scientific, legal, etc.). The common point to all these sectors is that they are currently experiencing digital transformation to face US web giants.

The current multiples are relatively reasonable at about 16x the 2017 EPS with expected net profit increases of about 10% and while for many players (including WPP and Publicis), 2016 will remain as a transition year. It should be noted that more than half of the index is represented by English companies, which adds an additional risk to the currency as well as to the UK specific risk in the case of "hard Brexit".

The volatility of the sector is not particularly high, the media being considered by the market as a growth sector (reinforced with the digital), more than a cyclical sector that it is also. The margins and cash flows can be significant, and the growth is also made by acquisitions, which makes the media an attractive sector for the long term. The digital transition has been accelerated for a large number of players, bringing together the business models of large IT services companies such as Accenture or Cap Gemini or US technology giants such as Netflix for certain broadcasters (eg ITV). Medium-term prospects are attractive.

The expenses of this ETF are reasonable at 0.3%. Assets Under Management : 7 M€.

The index declined by 5.9% in 2016 and has been stable since the beginning of 2017 after releasing all its gains in the last 15 days (-6%) due to several analyst downgrades, and the fear of weaker growth ahead due to a higher competitive landscape while the market moves definitely to the mobile.

Monthly data

The analysis of long term charts shows a false crossover of the monthly MACD, which is a negative signal. The MACD almost crossed in June, but the strong drop of the last 10 days of the month prevented it. It is therefore a false start that has negative implications on the trend. For the moment the EMA 26 holds well, but a breakout would endanger the long term trend. The technical situation is rather weak, and more than ever suspended from the Q2 2017 results.

 

Weekly data

The analysis of the weekly charts shows a violent turnaround which led to a net stop to the improvement of the trend. MDA prices have gone through the 13x26 averages and seem to find a floor on the M100, which remains to be confirmed. The oscillators, with MACD in the lead, have turned down and the EMA 13&26 averages are now going downwards without crossing over.

The EMA100 is now pivotal : either the prices rebound occurs at this level and are able to rise above the M26, or the M100 is broken out and the trend becomes bearish in the medium term.

 

 

ETF Objective

MDA is a UCITS compliant ETF that aims to track the benchmark index Stoxx Europe 600 Media Net Return (26 companies)

 

Characteristics

Inception date 18/08/2006
Expenses 0,30%
Benchmark SXMR stoxx 600 media
Issuer Lyxor
Ticker MDA
ISIN FR0010344929
UCITS Yes
Statut EU-SD Out of scope
Currency
Assets Under Management 7 M€
Exchange Euronext Paris
Dividend Capitalisation
PEA (France) Yes
SRD (France) Yes
Currency Risk High (£/€)
Number of Holdings 26
Risk 3/5

 

Country Breakdown

United Kingdom 58%
France 22%
Germany 6%
Netherlands 6%
Luxembourg 5%
Others 4%

Sector Breakdown

Consumer Discretionary 69%
Industrials 25%
Information Technology 6%

Top Ten Holdings

WPP 13%
Vivendi 11%
Reed Elsevier 11%
Relx NV 9%
Publicis 7%
British Sky Broadcasting 6%
Wolters Kluwer 6%
Prosieben Sat1 media AG 4%
ITV 4%
SES FDR 4%