S&P500 (SPY) : Return to the mean in progress

SPDR S&P 500 (SPY) - 11/03/19

Short Term strategy: Positive (80%)
Long Term strategy: Positive (90%)

Characteristics of the ETF

The SPY ETF (SPDR) created in 01/1993 replicates the S & P 500 index, which is composed of the 500 main US stocks representative of the main sectors, while the stocks are selected according to the size of their market capitalization.

The ETF fees are low at 0.0945% and the AUM is $ 255bn. Replication is direct (physical) and there is a dividend distribution policy on a quarterly basis.


Index profile

The top 10 stocks of the S&P500 include five major technology stocks (Apple, Amazon, Microsoft, Alphabet and Facebook), but also larger, more classic and iconic American companies such as JPMorgan or Exxon Mobil. The main benefit of this index is its depth, which allows it to be a good proxy for the US economy, with a sector weighting that favors the growth sectors a little more, just like the technology stocks that represent about 20% of the weighting. Financial stocks account for just over 13% of the index and energy stocks around 5% are well balanced by defensive sectors such as health (around 15%) and consumer discretionary (10%). ).

After a 19.4% rise in 2017, the S&P500 posted a -6.2% drop in 2018 due to expectations of an economic downturn related to the worsening trade war between the US and China and a at the same time, interest rate increases by the FED. The index rebounded 9.4% in 2019 due to a change of course of the FED which no longer plans to raise rates in the short term, and a probable deal between the US and China on March 27 in Florida. In addition, corporate results were rather reassuring in the fourth quarter with reasonable growth prospects in 2019. The S&P500 is well valued at 19x earnings, which leaves little room for growth for earnings growth expected in the near future + 5% this year.

ETFs alternatifs : AUM5 (Amundi en Euro), SP5 (Lyxor en Euro), IVV (iShares, en USD)

Nous sommes acheteurs de l'indice (Alerte haussière du 22/01/19)

Weekly data

The weekly chart shows a very strong rebound of the index from the EMA200 level, which is being corrected by a pull back towards the EMAs13 and 26 which are being crossed upward. A movement of this nature is classical and should not jeopardize the re-establishment of the medium-term positive trend. However, we will monitor this correction closely, which should not be too deep so as not to invalidate the crossing of moving averages and of the zero line by the MACD.

Daily data

On the daily chart, we can see that the index is engaged in a short-term correction after the strong rebound committed since the end of December 2018. Prices have crossed the EMAs13 & 26 downward and the MACD is also in reversal. However prices are approaching the EMA100 which is an important support likely to cause a rebound or stop the decline. Most likely, this correction should remain confined to the short-term horizon.


SPY is an ETF, listed in $, which seeks to replicate the S&P500 index (506 US companies)


Inception date 22/01/1993
Expense ratio 0.09%
Benchmark S&P 500
Issuer SPDR
Ticker SPY
ISIN US78462F1030
Currency $
Exchange NYSE Arca
Assets Under Management 225 300 M$
Replication Method Direct (Physical)
Dividend Distribution
Currency risk No
Number of Holdings 506
Risk 3/5

Country Breakdown

USA 100%

Sector Breakdown

Information technology 21%
Health Care 15%
Financials 13%
Consumer discretionary 10%
Communication Services 10%
Industrials 10%
Consumer staples 7%
Others 14%

Top Ten Holdings

Microsoft  4%
Apple 3%
Alphabet 3%
Amazon 3%
Johnson & Johnson 2%
Facebook 2%
Berkshire Hathaway 2%
JPMorgan Chase & Co 2%
Exxon Mobil 1%