The short-term global equity score is almost stable over 2 weeks, at 65 points (+1 over 2 weeks), in the area of positive momentum. The Long Term score remains stable and very positive at 77 points (+1).
The dynamism of equities is reflected in the strongest variations in the scores of our ETFs: with 4 of the 5 largest increases in the short term score (Retail Europe, Spanish IBEX Index, Israel, Telecom Europe and US Insurance)
This apparent stability of the short-term score masks in fact disparities that have been widening for several weeks:
The US still enjoys the best momentum, with very high scores: 85 for the Short Term and 77 for the Long Term.
Europe returns significantly positive momentum, with a score of 69 now Short Term (+15 over 2 weeks) and an excellent Long Term score (83)
The United Kingdom (L100: FTSE 100) remains in short-term negative momentum, at only 20 points. The Long Term trend remains solid at 90 points.
The affairs of South America do not manage, between the political problems and the decline of raw materials. It is advisable to be very cautious on this zone in the short term, like his score which has fallen to only 20. The long-term score of this zone remains well oriented at 63, but the 6 points lost in 2 weeks reflect the erosion of investor sentiment.
Asia is also down, to 68 points for the Short Term (-19 in 2 weeks!), But it still enjoys a very strong Long Term score (85). The recent decline is probably only a short-term consolidation, which would make it a buying opportunity.
The Middle East - Africa region is in positive momentum for the first time since June.
On the sector side Health resettled solidly in the green, with a short term score of 66 points (+16 over 2 weeks), and a long term score of 74 points (+6 over 2 weeks)
The Technology sector is still consolidating, as illustrated by the drop of 23 points in 2 weeks for the short term, which nevertheless remains clearly in the green at 73 points. The Long Term score remains at the highest, at 99 points.
Finance improving for the 4th week in a row, with a short-term score of 88 points now! As for the Retail sector, the rise took a little time to cross the Atlantic, but now BNK (Lyxor Bank Europe) also enjoys a high score in Short Term, with 70 points (+50 over 2 weeks)
Bonds :
Bonds are generally stable, with a short term score of 63 points (+2 in 2 weeks). High Yield still suffers, at only 30 points for the Short Term (-10 over 2 weeks), but with a long-term score still solid at 66 points (-3 points over 2 weeks).
ETFs with quality signatures such as AM3A (Amundi ETF Govt Bond Highest Rated) or CBBB (Amundi Euro Corporate) are maxed out (100 points) in the short term, as are TLTs (iShares 20+ years Treasury Bond) in the USA.
Oil :
The DBO ETF (PowerShares WTI) has a strong short-term uptrend (90 points), but remains neutral in the long term (50 points).
Commodities :
Commodities saw their scores drop significantly, with only 34 points in the short term, and 44 points for the long term, a negative momentum in both cases.
Metals, which we have been weakening for several weeks, have lost 37 points over two weeks, to 29 points now in the short term. The Long Term trend is also affected, with a drop of 10 points over 2 weeks (62 points).
Metals are weakening week by week, going from 83 short-term points to only 51 points now. The Long Term trend is better at 68 points. Nickel (iPath Bloomberg JJN) and Palladium (ETFS Physical Palladium Shares) have excellent short-term momentum. Nickel (JJN) and Copper (JJC) collapsed. The Palladium (PALL), with a short-term score of 90 points stands out.
Agricultural commodities are relapsing (35 short-term points, -13 over two weeks) and are still badly oriented in the long term. Only Cotton (BAL) is an exception.
Of the 5 largest declines in Short Term ETF ratings of our hedge, 4 are commodities (including IAU for Gold).
Gold :
Gold is with raw materials the biggest loser of the week. Its weekly decline has won its Short Term score, now only 20 points (negative momentum), and its Long Term trend has also been affected, at 70 points (-25 over 2 weeks).
Short Term Scores and Long Term Scores bu Asset class:
SHORT TERM
LONG TERM
Asset Class
W
W-2
variation
W
W-2
variation
Equities
65
64
1
77
76
1
Gold
20
90
-70
70
95
-25
Commodities
34
58
-24
44
48
-4
Bonds
63
60
2
65
67
-2
SHORT TERM
LONG TERM
Equities
W
W-2
variation
W
W-2
variation
US Equities
85
77
8
85
80
5
Europe Equities (Sectors)
69
54
15
83
81
2
South Europe Equities
55
28
28
71
70
1
Asia Equities
68
88
-19
85
87
-1
South America Equities
20
46
-26
63
69
-6
Middle East - Africa Equities
52
30
22
47
43
4
SHORT TERM
LONG TERM
Bonds
W
W-2
variation
W
W-2
variation
High Yield
30
40
-10
66
70
-4
SHORT TERM
LONG TERM
Commodities
W
W-2
variation
W
W-2
variation
Metals
29
66
-37
62
72
-10
Agricultural Commodities
35
48
-13
33
32
1
Top 5 Short Term Fall :
Short Term
2 weeks
ETF
ticker
score
variation
iPath Bloomberg Copper Subindex Total ReturnSM ETN
JJC
20
-80
iShares MSCI Taiwan ETF
EWT
20
-70
iShares Gold Trust
IAU
20
-70
iPath Bloomberg Nickel Subindex Total ReturnSM ETN
JJN
20
-70
iPath Bloomberg Cocoa Subindex Total ReturnSM ETN
NIB
30
-50
Top 5 Short Term Rise :
Short Term
2 weeks
ETF
Ticker
Score
Variation
SPDR S&P Insurance ETF
KIE
100
+50
SX600 Telecoms
TEL
70
+60
iShares MSCI Israel Capped ETF
EIS
80
+60
Lyxor IBEX 35 (DR) UCITS ETF
LYXIB
70
+70
SX600 Retail
RTA
80
+80
Methodology :
Krach indicator
Our indicator is calculated based on quantitative criteria that qualify Krach's risk based on the volatility market behavior (VIX), gold, US bonds (10 years) and the MSCI World. We adopt weightings of these different criteria in order to assess the market risk and its evolution on a weekly basis.
Short Term and Long Term Scores
The scores are calculated by our algorithms on the basis of quantitative criteria over several time horizons. These scores are between 0 and 100. Beyond 50 points the momentum is considered positive, under 50 points the momentum is negative, and the 50 points represent a neutral score. Dynamically, all comparisons are based on scores calculated two weeks earlier.
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Sensitive growth in European indices, which saw their short term score increase significantly to 69 points (+15 over 2 weeks)
Southern Europe is clearly shaking up -> buying opportunities?
The US still very bullish, while the emerging have suffered.
Our Krach indicator argues for a very low risk at only 24.4 points
Commodities have been hit hard this week, but there are still opportunities.
Our Asset Allocation (Global Macro Portfolio) remains unchanged by asset class: 39% Equities, 31% Bonds, 20% Commodities, 10% Gold
Detail by Asset Class
Equities:
The short-term global equity score is almost stable over 2 weeks, at 65 points (+1 over 2 weeks), in the area of positive momentum. The Long Term score remains stable and very positive at 77 points (+1).
The dynamism of equities is reflected in the strongest variations in the scores of our ETFs: with 4 of the 5 largest increases in the short term score (Retail Europe, Spanish IBEX Index, Israel, Telecom Europe and US Insurance)
This apparent stability of the short-term score masks in fact disparities that have been widening for several weeks:
The US still enjoys the best momentum, with very high scores: 85 for the Short Term and 77 for the Long Term.
Europe returns significantly positive momentum, with a score of 69 now Short Term (+15 over 2 weeks) and an excellent Long Term score (83)
The United Kingdom (L100: FTSE 100) remains in short-term negative momentum, at only 20 points. The Long Term trend remains solid at 90 points.
The affairs of South America do not manage, between the political problems and the decline of raw materials. It is advisable to be very cautious on this zone in the short term, like his score which has fallen to only 20. The long-term score of this zone remains well oriented at 63, but the 6 points lost in 2 weeks reflect the erosion of investor sentiment.
Asia is also down, to 68 points for the Short Term (-19 in 2 weeks!), But it still enjoys a very strong Long Term score (85). The recent decline is probably only a short-term consolidation, which would make it a buying opportunity.
The Middle East - Africa region is in positive momentum for the first time since June.
On the sector side Health resettled solidly in the green, with a short term score of 66 points (+16 over 2 weeks), and a long term score of 74 points (+6 over 2 weeks)
The Technology sector is still consolidating, as illustrated by the drop of 23 points in 2 weeks for the short term, which nevertheless remains clearly in the green at 73 points. The Long Term score remains at the highest, at 99 points.
Finance improving for the 4th week in a row, with a short-term score of 88 points now! As for the Retail sector, the rise took a little time to cross the Atlantic, but now BNK (Lyxor Bank Europe) also enjoys a high score in Short Term, with 70 points (+50 over 2 weeks)
Bonds :
Bonds are generally stable, with a short term score of 63 points (+2 in 2 weeks). High Yield still suffers, at only 30 points for the Short Term (-10 over 2 weeks), but with a long-term score still solid at 66 points (-3 points over 2 weeks).
ETFs with quality signatures such as AM3A (Amundi ETF Govt Bond Highest Rated) or CBBB (Amundi Euro Corporate) are maxed out (100 points) in the short term, as are TLTs (iShares 20+ years Treasury Bond) in the USA.
Oil :
The DBO ETF (PowerShares WTI) has a strong short-term uptrend (90 points), but remains neutral in the long term (50 points).
Commodities :
Commodities saw their scores drop significantly, with only 34 points in the short term, and 44 points for the long term, a negative momentum in both cases.
Metals, which we have been weakening for several weeks, have lost 37 points over two weeks, to 29 points now in the short term. The Long Term trend is also affected, with a drop of 10 points over 2 weeks (62 points).
Metals are weakening week by week, going from 83 short-term points to only 51 points now. The Long Term trend is better at 68 points. Nickel (iPath Bloomberg JJN) and Palladium (ETFS Physical Palladium Shares) have excellent short-term momentum. Nickel (JJN) and Copper (JJC) collapsed. The Palladium (PALL), with a short-term score of 90 points stands out.
Agricultural commodities are relapsing (35 short-term points, -13 over two weeks) and are still badly oriented in the long term. Only Cotton (BAL) is an exception.
Of the 5 largest declines in Short Term ETF ratings of our hedge, 4 are commodities (including IAU for Gold).
Gold :
Gold is with raw materials the biggest loser of the week. Its weekly decline has won its Short Term score, now only 20 points (negative momentum), and its Long Term trend has also been affected, at 70 points (-25 over 2 weeks).
Short Term Scores and Long Term Scores bu Asset class:
Top 5 Short Term Fall :
Top 5 Short Term Rise :
Methodology :
Krach indicator
Our indicator is calculated based on quantitative criteria that qualify Krach's risk based on the volatility market behavior (VIX), gold, US bonds (10 years) and the MSCI World. We adopt weightings of these different criteria in order to assess the market risk and its evolution on a weekly basis.Short Term and Long Term Scores
The scores are calculated by our algorithms on the basis of quantitative criteria over several time horizons. These scores are between 0 and 100. Beyond 50 points the momentum is considered positive, under 50 points the momentum is negative, and the 50 points represent a neutral score. Dynamically, all comparisons are based on scores calculated two weeks earlier.