Europe Health Care (HLT) : A rising momentum

Lyxor ETF Health Care - HLT - 02/10/2018

Short Term strategy: Positive (90%) / Trend +
Long Term strategy: Positive (95%) / Trend +

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Characteristics of the ETF

The Lyxor HLT ETF (UCITS), created in 08/2006 is listed in Euro on Euronext and reproduces the Stoxx600 Healthcare Europe index which is made up of the 56 main European stocks in the sector, It should be noted that non-eurozone stocks represent 68% of the index which is not insignificant given the potentially significant fluctuations of the £ and CHF against the Euro.

The fees of this ETF are 0.3% in the average of our selection and the AUM is approximately € 301m. The replication method is indirect (via a swap) and the distribution method is capitalized. 

Alternative ETFs: SYH (BNP Paribas Easy Euro), CH5 (Amundi Euro).

Latest developments

The ETF HLT rose by 4.8% in 2017, well below the Stoxx600NR (10.6%) and has so far posted a solid performance of + 7.2% since the beginning of the year (against + 1.1% for the stoxx600NR).

The performance of the index is mainly driven by the UK pharmas, primarily Glaxo Smithkline (+ 20.9%) and Astrazeneca (+ 21.7%) because of positive datas on certain molecules, while the two Swiss giants Novartis (+ 3%) and Roche (-3%) are lagging due to difficulties encountered during the first half of the year in the US in particular, but have been catching up since the summer thanks to good quarterly publications, acquisitions and validations of molecules by the FDA (lung cancer for Roche) and massive restructuring for Novartis.

Industry multiples remain attractive at 17x earnings at 12 months for a rise in expected results of around 8%.

 

Index & components

The two major Swiss pharmaceutical stocks (Novartis and Roche) account for around 30% of the capitalization.

The five largest stocks are in addition to the two Swiss stocks: Glaxosmithkline, Novo Nordisk and Sanofi, which account for 52% of the index. Market capitalizations are also enormous: more than CHF 200 billion for Roche and Novartis, while the following 3 are around € 100 billion; this is a very important factor of inertia and offsets the relative narrowness of the index.

We also note that the overwhelming majority of companies that make up the index are pharmaceuticals, with the exception of Essilor (Ophthalmic Lenses), Philips (Equipments) and Fresenius (Healthcare Facility), so we view HLT essentially as an ETF pharma Europe.

The pharmaceutical index is not very volatile, because of the weight of its constituents as well as because of a proven defensive profile, which is explained by the fact that the discovery of molecules and their distribution is little related to economic cycles, while that in developed countries medicines are reimbursed by mutuals or by the State.

In addition, health is a growth sector whose main drivers are innovation and growing markets linked to the pathologies of the developed world (aging and diabetes), as well as new viruses and antibiotic resistance. In addition, emerging markets are an important market for the European pharmaceutical industry.

The sector is facing the increasing maturity of molecule portfolios, price pressure in some areas (eg diabetes) and state budget efforts to reduce health costs. The solution lies in the innovation and partnerships / buyouts of biotech companies that should accelerate in the coming months-because valuations have become attractive again-with the key to new molecules with high potential to boost existing portfolios.

Large tax-motivated mergers seem to have long been buried since the failure of the AstraZeneca / Pfizer operation, but the sector is also impacted by US regulatory uncertainties and regular pressure to lower drug prices.

Monthly data

The monthly chart shows an index momentum recovery since July, which is characterized by a large bullish candlestick as well as by the positive crossing of the MACD. This recovery seems to interrupt a 3 years trading range between 70 and 95 €. The next obstacle to overcome is the resistance of the 2015 summit to € 96, which would release the sector's upside potential in the medium term.

 

Weekly data

On the weekly chart, we can see a rebound in a fairly stable medium-term trend. However the current bullish attack is gaining momentum and is expected to hit the 2017 highs of € 92 in the next few days. A strengthening of the uptrend is possible while the oscillators remain positively oriented and the moving averages are upward. The level of € 92 is to watch closely.

ETF Objective

HLT is a UCITS ETF, listed in EUR, which seeks to replicate the STOXX Europe 600 Health Care Net Return EUR index (56 companies) 

Characteristics

Inception date 18/08/2006
Expense ratio 0,30%
Issuer Lyxor
Benchmark Stoxx 600 Healthcare
Replication Method Indirect (swap)
Ticker HLT
ISIN FR0010344879
UCITS Yes
EU-SD status Out of scope
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 301 M€
Dividend Capitalization
PEA (France) Yes
SRD (France) Yes
Number of Holdings 56
Risk 3/5

Country Breakdown

Switzerland 34%
United Kingdom 17%
Germany 13%
France 12%
Danemark 11%
Netherlands 4%
USA 4%
Others 5%

Sector Breakdown

Health Care 98%
Materials 2%

Top Ten Holdings

Novartis 17%
Roche 13%
Glaxosmithkline 8%
Sanofi 8%
Astrazeneca 7%
Bayer 6%
Novo Nordisk 6%
Shire 4%
Koninklijke 3%
Essilor 3%