Our Market Analysis : 02/09/2017

This week was marked by greater volatility in the indices, particularly the Stoxx600NR, which ended with a 0.6% rise after a start of the week under pressure, due to the rise in the Euro, which surpassed the 1.20 level before to return to 1.18 / 1.19 on the weekend.

In addition, geopolitical tensions have returned to the forefront with the North Korean missile that crossed Japan before crashing into the Pacific, but without triggering this time bellicose rhetoric from President Trump. This renewed tension comes as the US and South Korea carry out drills training for a conflict with North Korea and lead to regular provocations on the part of the latter.

The end of the week was rather bullish in Europe, where optimism about economic growth continues to prevail. In France, the government disclosed its reform on the labor market, which seems to be a success in the first place, given the rather moderate reaction of trade unions - outside CGT - which may reduce the impact of the mobilizations planned on 12 and September 23rd.

In the US, an additional 156,000 jobs were created in August, which is lower than the consensus of economists, which stood at 170,000 while the figures for June and July were revised downwards. However, these figures do not seem to modify the timing of the Fed which could carry out a further increase of 1/4 pts in T4 2017, an event deemed probable by only 36% of US professionals. However, the FED, which has a vision at 12/18 months, could also opt for wait-and-see attitude, in order to assess all the consequences of Hurricane Harvey on the US economy. In addition, there are still the "shutdown" threats from D.Trump in the event of opposition from the congress to its wall at the Mexican border, but this scenario appears much less likely now, while thousands of Americans are in the waiting for government assistance after Harvey.

Eventually this week may mark the end of the correction in the European markets as it seems that the Euro / Dollar has just reached a peak at 1.20, while the US government's shutdown spectrum moves away. Moreover, there is no particular concern about rates and commodities continue their push, which is favorable to emerging economies.

Retail Europe under pressure in the wake of Carrefour warning (Lyxor ETF RTA) : weekly data

Brazil index soar (Lyxor RIO) : weekly data