Our Market Analysis : 02/12/2017

A week of correction for the European indices with a decrease of 0.7% for the STOXX600NR, but which includes a decrease of 1.5% for the DAX30 and 1.4% for the CAC40.

The decline also experienced on the Nasdaq Composite (-0.6%) due to profit taking on tech stocks but not on the S & P500, which increased by 1.5%, occurred mainly at the end of the week and reflects investor caution in the absence of an agreement on tax reform in the United States on the eve of the weekend while a second attempt at the Senate seems imminent after a first rejection on technical points.

Profit taking on European Technology sector (Lyxor ETF TNO) : weekly data

Another event weighed on the markets on Friday, which concerns the "Russian affair" that is now dangerously close to D.Trump: presented to a judge in federal court in Washington DC Michael Flynn, former director of US military intelligence, has admitted to having lied to the FBI, a statement that immediately dropped Wall Street by more than 1% and dragged the European markets with him.

The OPEC meeting finally led to an extension of the output cut-off agreement until the end of 2018 with a revision clause in the event of price spikes. This agreement should allow oil to continue its rebound, while crude WTI is now on a long-term pivot point around $ 59 which in case of break out would open a very significant potential, technically speaking.

Pivotal long term level on WTI crude prices (ETF PowerShares DBO ) : weekly data

In terms of currencies, the Euro remained firm against the dollar around 1.19 and threatens to break the resistance of 1.20 which weighs on the European markets. While rates remained fairly stable over the week, commodities overall consolidated, especially metals.

US markets remain supported by the prospect of adopting the tax plan, while European markets are lacking positive catalysts following the lack of leadership in Germany that could last until next March, and the elections planned in Catalonia at the end of December.

However, economic statistics show that the recovery is well anchored, particularly in France and Italy, which is encouraging for 2018, while valuations are still attractive, especially since the margins of European companies are still far from their peak.