The indexes ended up slightly higher this week, with the Stoxx600 NR up + 0.3% while the S&P500 rose almost 1.6% thanks to the decline of the dollar and the sectors related to rates and oil.
IBEX35 (Spain) on the rise again : LYXIB, weekly data
The rise in the Euro / dollar strengthened to 1.21 while the German “exploratory talks” finally ended with an agreement between the leaders of the SPD and the CDU / CSU and concern family reunification of refugees (capped at 1000 per month ), the equal contribution of employers and employees to health care, the SPD agreement not to raise taxes on high wages. The SPD will vote at its congress on January 21st and the goal is to have a government by Easter. This is excellent news for the euro zone, but for the time being, it is mainly translating into the appreciation of the currency, which is likely to weigh negatively on the markets in the short term.
Inflation expectations are again on an upward trend (forward swaps) in the context of steeper yield curves and higher oil prices which have reached new 2 years highs at nearly $ 65 for WTI and $ 70 for the Brent. Eurozone government bond yields are also rising (10-year German above 0.52%, France above 0.85%), except in Italy (1.99%).
The relative performance of the Stoxx600 is quite marked by the theme of interest rates with the defensive sectors and concessions declining, while banks, insurance, automobiles, industries, oil and gas, basic resources ended up. The week was also marked by the rise in gold, which continues to benefit from the weakening dollar and inflationary risks.
Banks drive Markets momentum: BNK, weekly data
The decline in 10-year US government bonds continued this week, and prices are now in a pivotal zone that could tilt them into a long term bear market. In this case, it is likely that volatility will be back on equity markets.
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The indexes ended up slightly higher this week, with the Stoxx600 NR up + 0.3% while the S&P500 rose almost 1.6% thanks to the decline of the dollar and the sectors related to rates and oil.
IBEX35 (Spain) on the rise again : LYXIB, weekly data
The rise in the Euro / dollar strengthened to 1.21 while the German “exploratory talks” finally ended with an agreement between the leaders of the SPD and the CDU / CSU and concern family reunification of refugees (capped at 1000 per month ), the equal contribution of employers and employees to health care, the SPD agreement not to raise taxes on high wages. The SPD will vote at its congress on January 21st and the goal is to have a government by Easter. This is excellent news for the euro zone, but for the time being, it is mainly translating into the appreciation of the currency, which is likely to weigh negatively on the markets in the short term.
Inflation expectations are again on an upward trend (forward swaps) in the context of steeper yield curves and higher oil prices which have reached new 2 years highs at nearly $ 65 for WTI and $ 70 for the Brent. Eurozone government bond yields are also rising (10-year German above 0.52%, France above 0.85%), except in Italy (1.99%).
The relative performance of the Stoxx600 is quite marked by the theme of interest rates with the defensive sectors and concessions declining, while banks, insurance, automobiles, industries, oil and gas, basic resources ended up. The week was also marked by the rise in gold, which continues to benefit from the weakening dollar and inflationary risks.
Banks drive Markets momentum: BNK, weekly data
The decline in 10-year US government bonds continued this week, and prices are now in a pivotal zone that could tilt them into a long term bear market. In this case, it is likely that volatility will be back on equity markets.