Latam (LTM) : A positive relative momentum

Lyxor ETF Latin America - LTM - 05/06/19

Short Term trend: Positive (95/100)
Long Term trend: Positive (95/100)

Scores computed by our proprietary algorithms - cf methodology

LTM is part of our Global Macro portfolio

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Characteristics of the ETF

The Lyxor LTM ETF (UCITS), created in 05/2007 quoted in Euro on Euronext and replicates the MSCI Daily Index TR Net Emerging Markets Latin America USD Index. The index values are selected to represent 85% of the market capitalization of the Latin America zone, while reflecting the economic diversity of this market. It is an index composed of 118 stocks, of which 62% of the capitalization comes from Brazil. The fee of this ETF is 0.65% and the amount of assets under management is approximately 61M €. The replication method is indirect (via a swap) and there is a dividend capitalization method.

Alternative ETFs:  ILF (iShares in USD)

 

Index & components

The LTM ETF replicates a fairly broad index composed of 118 stocks from 5 countries. The country that is most represented is Brazil with 62% of the capitalization of the index followed by Mexico (21%), Chile (8%), Colombia (3%) and Peru (3%).

Three main sectors dominate the index: financials (34% of the index), basic materials (14%) and consumer durables (15%). The top 10 stocks in the index represent 42% of the index's capitalization (Vale, the Brazilian mining company and Itau Unibanco are the first 2 capitalizations with 6.2 and 6.8 %%) and the specific risk values ​​are therefore quite low. Latin American countries are generally quite correlated in their stock market evolution, but with differences that can be explained by their exposure to certain sectors.

For example, Peru and Chile have an economy highly correlated with the mining industry (silver, copper ...), while Colombia and Mexico are more correlated with oil and Brazil has a much more diversified economy and to itself by its weight a significant impact on its neighbors.

In addition, a number of these emerging economies have more chaotic paths because of political problems (Brazil, Peru) or specific problems, like Mexico in the middle of a trade conflict with the USA. The Latin American countries are also suffering from the serious deterioration of the economy in Venezuela and Argentina, destabilized by the massive influx of migrants (Venezuela) and the fall of currencies which makes fear a contagion effect.

The zone is also very dependent on the USA and China for their exports, with sensitivity to the US dollar as well as US interest rates.

Monthly data

The long-term trend remains positively oriented, despite a declining momentum since the beginning of the year. However, in recent weeks the relative performance has returned to positive and an attack of the ceiling of 30 € seems again possible. The resistance zone of 30/32 € is strong and is more than 10 years old, the break of this historic ceiling would represent a very powerful signal but it still seems unlikely.

Weekly data

On the weekly chart, we can identify a significant rebound that occurred in contact with the EMA200 and has since three weeks upward all resistance. Advanced technical oscillators like the RSI have already turned upward while the MACD starts the movement. The short-term momentum is accelerating, but soon to be tested as resistance approaches around € 30.

Theme

LTM is a UCITS ETF, listed in €, which seeks to replicate the MSCI Daily TR Net Emerging Markets Latin America USD index (118 companies)

 

Characteristics

Inception date 15/05/2007
Expense ratio 0,65%
Issuer Lyxor
Benchmark MSCI Daily TR Net Emerging Markets Latin America USD
Replication method Indirect (swap)
Ticker LTM
ISIN LU1900066629
UCITS Yes
EU-SD Status Out of scope
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 61 M€
Dividend Capitalization
PEA (France) No
SRD (France) Yes
Number of holdings 118
Risk 4/5

Country breakdown

Brazil 62%
Mexico 21%
Chili 7%
Columbia 3%
Peru 3%
Argentina 2%

Sector breakdown

Financials 34%
Materials 15%
Consumer staples 15%
Energy 11%
Communication services 6%
Industrials 6%
Others 14%

Top Ten Holdings

Itau Unibanco Holding 7%
Vale SA 6%
Banco Bradesco 6%
Petrobras - Petroleo Bras-PR 4%
America Movil 4%
Petrobras Petroleo Bras 3%
Ambev 3%
BM&FBOVESPA 3%
Fomento Economico Mexicano 3%
Credicorp Ltd 2%