Latin America (LTM) : The resistance is under pressure

Lyxor ETF Latin America - LTM - 28/06/19

Short Term trend: Positive (100/100)
Long Term trend: Positive (100/100)

Scores computed by our proprietary algorithms - cf methodology

LTM is part of our Global Macro portfolio

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Characteristics of the ETF

The Lyxor LTM ETF (UCITS), created in 05/2007 is listed in Euro on Euronext and replicates the MSCI Daily Index TR Net Emerging Markets Latin America USD Index.

The index values are selected to represent 85% of the market capitalization of the Latin America zone, while reflecting the economic diversity of this market. It is an index composed of 118 stocks, of which 62% of the capitalization comes from Brazil.

The fee of this ETF is 0.65% and the amount of assets under management is approximately 64M €. The replication method is indirect (via a swap) and there is a dividend capitalization method.

Alternative ETFs:  ILF (iShares in USD)

 

Index & components

The LTM ETF replicates a fairly broad index composed of 118 stocks from 5 countries. The country that is most represented is Brazil with 62% of the capitalization of the index followed by Mexico (21%), Chile (8%), Colombia (3%) and Peru (3%).

Three main sectors dominate the index: financials (34% of the index), basic materials (14%) and consumer durables (15%).

The top 10 stocks in the index represent 42% of the index's capitalization (Vale, the Brazilian mining company and Itau Unibanco are the first 2 capitalizations with 6.2 and 6.7 %%) and the specific risk values ​​are therefore quite low. Latin American countries are generally quite correlated in their stock market evolution, but with differences that can be explained by their exposure to certain sectors. For example, Peru and Chile have an economy highly correlated with the mining industry (silver, copper ...), while Colombia and Mexico are more correlated with oil and Brazil has a much more diversified economy and to itself by its weight a significant impact on its neighbors.

In addition, a number of these emerging economies have more chaotic paths because of political problems (Brazil, Peru) or specific problems, like Mexico in the middle of a trade conflict with the USA. The Latin American countries are also suffering from the serious deterioration of the economy in Venezuela and Argentina, destabilized by the massive influx of migrants (Venezuela) and the fall of currencies which makes fear a contagion effect.

The zone is also very dependent on the USA and China for their exports, with sensitivity to the US dollar as well as US interest rates. The current rate cut and the stabilization of the USD are positive factors for South American currencies.

Monthly data analysis

The long-term trend is relatively flat, but the index has returned to its all-time highs after a trough in 2016. However, for a new dynamic to be able to establish itself over the long term, the South American index must cross the obstacle at 32 € which would release significant potential in the medium term. The fact that prices stick to resistance without volatility is a factor favorable to this issue, as a work of undermining is preparing.

Weekly data analysis

On the weekly chart, we can identify a medium-term trend that is drifting upwards but generally lacks momentum, which is characterized by fairly flat moving averages. However, the consolidations are weaker and the index manages to post higher, which could eventually lead to an upward acceleration. The index is in a strong zone of historical resistance that must be exceeded for the momentum to accelerate.

Theme

LTM is a UCITS ETF, listed in €, which seeks to replicate the MSCI Daily TR Net Emerging Markets Latin America USD index (118 companies)

 

Characteristics

Inception date 15/05/2007
Expense ratio 0,65%
Issuer Lyxor
Benchmark MSCI Daily TR Net Emerging Markets Latin America USD
Replication method Indirect (swap)
Ticker LTM
ISIN LU1900066629
UCITS Yes
EU-SD status Out of scope
Currency
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 64 M€
Dividend Capitalization
PEA (France) No
SRD (France) Yes
Number of holdings 118
Risk 4/5

Country breakdown

Brazil 62%
Mexico 21%
Chile 8%
Colombia 3%
Peru 3%
Argentina 2%

Sector breakdown

Financials 34%
Materials 15%
Consumer staples 15%
Energy 11%
Communication services 6%
Industrials 6%
Utilities 5%
Others 8%

Top Ten holdings

Itau Unibanco Holding 7%
Vale SA 6%
Banco Bradesco 6%
Petrobras - Petroleo Bras-PR 4%
America Movil 4%
Petrobras Petroleo Bras 3%
Ambev 3%
BM&FBOVESPA 3%
Fomento Economico Mexicano 3%
Credicorp Ltd 2%