Media Europe (MDA) : Strong relative momentum

Lyxor ETF Media Europe - MDA - 29/04/19

Short Term trend: Positive (100/100)
Long Term trend: Positive (100/100)

Scores computed by our proprietary algorithms - cf methodology

Characteristics of the TF

The MDA ETF (Lyxor) replicates the Stoxx Europe 600 Media Index (SXXR) which is composed of the main European media values. This index is quite concentrated since it contains only 21 values. By geography, the index is predominantly English with a weighting of 59% for the United Kingdom and 21% for France and 20% for the rest of Europe. There is therefore a significant exposure to the EURO / POUND parity, which is not trivial in the Brexit period.

The ETF MDA bears a fee of 0.3% with AUM of € 6 millions. The replication method is indirect (via a swap) and there is a dividend capitalization policy.

 

Index & components

This index is quite concentrated since it contains only 21 stocks and is essentially composed of market capitalizations of between € 5 and € 30bn.

What characterizes it especially is a great diversity of business models: WPP and Publicis are advertisers in full digital transformation, ITV or SKY are broadcasters, that is to say distributors of contents which want more and more to ensure their own production deal with content giants like Netflix. This index also includes companies like RELX Group (Reed Elsevier) or Wolters Kluwer which are publishers of information and specialized content (scientific, legal etc ...).

The point common to all these sectors is to be currently in digital mutation facing the web giants.

Current multiples are relatively reasonable at around 15x 2019 earnings but earnings growth remains uncertain. It should be noted that more than half of the index is represented by English values, which adds an additional risk to the currency as well as to the specific risk in the United Kingdom, particularly related to Brexit.

The volatility of the sector is not particularly high, as the media is considered by the market as a growth sector (reinforced with the digital), more than a cyclical sector what it is also. Margins and cash flows can be significant, and growth is also much by acquisitions which makes the media an attractive sector for the long term. The digital transition has been accelerated for a large number of players, bringing the business models of major IT companies such as Accenture or Cap Gemini or giants of US technology like Netflix for some broadcasters (eg ITV). The medium-term outlook is attractive.

The index is flat since 2015. However, in 2019, the index rose by 14.9%, which is lower than the Stoxx600NR index (+ 17%) but represents a real improvement thanks to some stocks like Wolters Kluwer (+ 21%) or Informa (+ 27%). Media stocks also benefit from the takeover of M & A, such as the takeover of Epsilon by Publicis.

Technical analysis

Monthly data analysis

The monthly chart shows a long-term trend that returns positive after 3 years flat, the moving averages are again rising and the MACD crossed upward for the first time since September 2015 (except a false signal at the end of the year 2018). The signal of a new long-term bullish start will be fully credible if new highs are reached, therefore if the 2015 highs (€ 38.5) were to be exceeded. This goal is getting closer and closer and needs to be monitored.

Monthly data analysis (relative vs Stoxx600)

The MDA / SXXR monthly chart shows that the relative behavior of the index is improving significantly over a long-term horizon. The corrective candlestick of March has been neutralized by a strong bullish reaction in April while the EMAs 13 & 26 and the MACD have launched a bullish signal, by an upward crossing and the exceeding  of the zero line. After a long period of underperformance, the Media sector seems to be starting a favorable wave of outperformance against the European index.

Theme

MDA is a UCITS ETF, listed in EUR, which seeks to replicate the STOXX Europe 600 Media Net Return EUR index (21 european companies)

Characteristics

Inception date 18/08/2006
Expense ratio 0,30%
Benchmark SXMR stoxx 600 media
Issuer Lyxor
Ticker MDA
ISIN LU1834988195
UCITS Yes
EU-SD Status Out of scope
Currency
Assets Under Management 6 M€
Exchange Euronext Paris
Dividend Capitalization
PEA Yes
SRD Yes
Currency risk Yes
Number of Holdings 21
Risk 4/5

Country Breakdown

United Kingdom 54%
France 25%
Netherlands 10%
Germany 4%
Luxembourg 4%
Others 1%

Sector Breakdown

Consumer discretionary 66%
Industrials 34%

Top Ten holdings

RELX 23%
Vivendi 14%
Wolter Kluwers 10%
WPP 8%
Informa 7%
Publicis 7%
Pearson 5%
ITV 4%
Auto Trader Group 4%
Rightmove 3%