World New Energy (NRJ) : In which way will exit trading range ?

Lyxor ETF New Energy (NRJ) - 11/08/2017

Short term strategy : Negative (20%) / Trend -
Long term strategy : Positive (95%) / Trend +

Characteristics of the ETF

The NRJ ETF gives the investor access to a basket of 20 stocks in the renewable energy sector.

The index is calculated by Dow Jones from a selection of stocks by SAM (Sustainable Asset Management Management specializing in sustainable development created in 1995). It is an international selection with a strong focus on US stocks, which account for almost half of the index, while Europe accounts for about 1/3 of the index and Samsung SDI (batteries) is also present. The index appears to be well balanced with numerous activities represented, ranging from the production and distribution of energy (Calpine, Nextera) to the manufacture of turbines (Vestas, Gamesa) and energy management (Schneider) and also in component manufacturers (STM and ON semiconductors), automotive suppliers (Borgwarner) and LED manufacturers (Acuity Brands). This, however, results in exposure to foreign exchange risks, mainly related to the evolution of the USD / EUR parity.

We have significant market capitalizations in the index, such as Nextera ($ 57md) or Schneider (€ 36bn), while many stocks are in a range of € 5-15bn, which leaves a lot of potential appreciation. At the time of the energy transition, and while energy consumption will continue to increase significantly in the coming decades, the sector seems very interesting to us to play in a medium-term perspective. In addition, some sub-sectors such as batteries have a very strong growth potential, with developments in the electric car and in industry.

The sector has a rather normal volatility for a growth theme but this is mitigated by a good diversification in terms of segments and geographies and the size of the players.

ETF fees are slightly higher than the sample average, of 0.65% (Assets Under Management: 53 M€).

US reforms in renewable energy will be monitored, while the Trump administration appears to be much more favorable to fossil fuels. China also has great ambitions in this field (batteries and renewable energies) and has major players who will represent a formidable competition to the Westerners and Koreans present in this selection. However for some weeks certain stocks ​​are under pressure for different reasons (Samsung entered correction reflecting disappointing Q2 results and the Korean problem), SiemensGamesa which has just lost nearly 30% of its stock market capitalization after its issues in India while Vestas, Schneider And Nextera support the index, which explains the current trading range.

Monthly data

The long-term chart is bullish but with fairly marked amplitude movements. For six months, the index has evolved flat, which results to consolidating the bullish wave started at the end of 2016. Prices could wait to reach the EMA13 support which is located 1 € below, before restarting a new bullish wave. The oscillators remain well oriented, which shows that the positive trend is well established.

Weekly data

The weekly chart shows some weakening of the uptrend but which remains moderate. The oscillators have been falling for several months and the moving averages are flattening. However, there is very little volatility and the prices remain above the moving averages while having touched several times the EMA26 which acts as a support.

It will therefore be monitored a possible bearish breakout of the EMA26 which could trigger an acceleration of the bearish pressure.

ETF Objective

NRJ is a UCITS compliant ETF that aims to track the benchmark index World Alternative Energy CW Net Total Return (20 companies).

Characteristics

Inception date 10/10/2007
Expenses 0,6%
Issuer Lyxor
Benchmark World Alternative Energy Index
Code/Ticker NRJ
ISIN FR0010524777
UCITS Yes
EU-SD Status Out of Scope
Currency Euro
Exchange Euronext Paris
Assets Under Management 53 M€
PEA No
SRD No
Currency Risk Yes
Number of Holdings 20
Risk 3/5

Country Breakdown

United States 45%
Danemark 10%
France 10%
Netherlands 9%
South Korea 6%
Canada 6%
Ireland 4%
Others 10%

Sector Breakdown

Industrials 40%
Information Technology 30%
Utilities 23%
Consumer Discretionary 7%

Top Ten Holdings

Schneider Electric 10%
Vestas Wind Systems 10%
Nextera Energy 10%
STMicroelectronics 9%
Acuity Brands 8%
Borgwarner 7%
Samsung SDI 7%
ON Semiconductor 5%
Universal Display 4%
Calpine 4%