France CAC40 (PX1) : Back to the top but…

France CAC40 (PX1) - 01/07/19

Short Term trend: Positive (100/100)
Long Term trend: Positive (95/100)

(scores computed by our proprietary algorithms - cf methodology)

Index profile

It should be noted that the top 10 stocks (which represent about 55% of the index) belong to very different sectors, unlike the DAX (overweight in industrial stocks) or the FTSE100 (pharmacy and financial), the CAC40 is indeed more composite in its sectoral composition. However, three heavily weighted stocks, Total (10%), LVMH (8%) and Sanofi (7%) can influence the index according to their own fundamental factors, which represents a bias in values.

From a sectoral point of view, we can see that the consumer goods sector represented by luxury goods and cosmetics such as LVMH or Loreal, is one of the most important for the index (18%) behind the industry  (21%), ahead of financials (10%) or energy (11%).

The CAC40's values ​​are often world leaders with a very international exposure, with little dependence on the domestic market and with a fairly strong dollar sensitivity.

In 2017, the CAC40 achieved a performance of 9.3% which was more than offset by a -11% in 2018. As on the other European or North American indices, the decrease is mainly due to the fall of the markets launched in October against the backdrop of a trade war between the US and China, a rate hike policy considered too aggressive by the FED, and more specifically for France, the fear of stopping reforms because of the social protest that has increased at the risk of destabilizing the government.

Since January 2019, the index is rebounding sharply (+ 17.1%), but remains quite volatile in the face of the accumulation of risks on global growth, with the first place of persistence and aggravation of tensions between China and the United States, the return of fears on Italy and a possible hard Brexit.

Instruments: CAC (Lyxor in Euro), C4D (Amundi in Euro), E40 (BNP Paribas Easy in Euro)

Technical analysis

Weekly data analysis

Weekly data show a rapid return to April levels after a new test of the EMA100 which once again showed its role of major support in case of a simple correction. But the index has been fairly stable for 2 years - except for the year-end correction in 2018 - and still cannot overcome the resistance of 5600 pts. The resistance will not be easy to overcome, but if it were, it would be a very positive signal for the CAC40.

Daily data analysis

The daily chart shows a bearish departure of the index again aborted, while after an extended rebound it is found once again on the historical ceiling of 5600 pts. The index is not in an overbought zone in the short term, which could favor a crossing of the resistance. However the general look of the index is not really bullish, it is more of a trading range and the current rebound is not necessarily significant. The CAC40 remains non-directional for the moment.

Country breakdown

France 97%
Netherlands 1%
Luxembourg 1%
United Kingdom 1%

Sector breakdown

Industrials 21%
Consumer discretionary 18%
Consumer staples 12%
Energy 11%
Financials 10%
Health Care 10%
Materials 5%
Others 13%

Top ten holdings

Total 10%
LVMH 8%
Sanofi 7%
Airbus 6%
L'Oreal 5%
BNP Paribas 4%
Air Liquide 4%
Danone 4%
Schneider 4%
Axa 4%