Stoxx600 (SXXR) : The ceiling is under attack

Lyxor stoxx 600 Net Return (SXXR) - 15/04/19

Short Term trend: Positive (100/100)
Long Term trend: Positive (95/100)

scores computed by our proprietary algorithms - cf methodology

Index profile

The European benchmark enjoys a very important depth with 600 holdings ​​and a great diversity by its exposure to the main sectors and countries of the European Union, including outside of the eurozone.

This index is a benchmark for the European markets, and we analyze its stock market behavior with great attention because the evolution of this index partly conditions our sectoral and geographic strategy.

The index is fairly balanced in its weighting with 4 major sectors that represent two thirds of the capitalization. In the first position is the cyclical and sustainable consumer goods sector (23%), which includes food giants such as Nestlé or AB-Inbev, as well as luxury, cosmetics and ready-to-wear brands like LVMH or Inditex as well as the automotive sector; financial (19%) industry (14%) and health (13%).

In this index, energy-related values ​​represent only 7% and raw materials 9%. In addition, it should be noted that there is a certain level of currency risk in this index consisting of 24% of British securities and 14% of Swiss securities, even if the securities concerned are international and fairly exposed to the dollar.

The STOXX600 is very representative of the European economy because of its sector weighting, which is less favorable to oil than in some national indices (like the CAC40), while the financial sector (banks + insurance) remains a key compartment with 10% of the weighting but without reaching the weight of the Italian or Spanish indices (c.30%).

This balanced weighting allows MEUD to have lower volatility than the national indices, as this index is much more diversified and without sector bias. The ETF MEUD has the advantage of replicating a broader index than the Eurostoxx50 and which also incorporates smaller capitalizations, but with a more dynamic path.

The European economic cycle is currently weakening, which is validated both by the PMIs datas and also the market consensus for corporates which is adjusting lower at quick pace for 2019 results expectations. The ECB remains a factor of stabilization and the monetary normalization should be very progressive in the absence of inflation. A strong rebound is currently taking place in hopes of resolving the major trade and Brexit issues, while valuations are relatively attractive.


ETFs: MEUD (Lyxor in Euro),C6E (Amundi in Euro), ETZ (BNP Paribas Easy in Euro), EXSA (iShares in Euro)

Technical analysis

Monthly analysis

The monthly chart shows a chaotic trend but which has remained bullish overall since 2012. However, the index regularly undergoes significant corrections as in 2016 and more recently at the end of 2018, while it fails to achieve new highs with a cap at around 800 pts since 2015. A new break out attempt of the ceiling is taking place. This movement is potentially more dangerous than others and to monitor closely as it was unexpected, especially as the MACD is about to cross on the rise.

Weekly analysis

On the weekly chart, we can see a very strong upward momentum since the lows of December 2018 which corresponds to a retracement of almost 20% without pause in just 3 months. The technical indicators become tense, but not to the point of making the current strong momentum untenable in the short term. On the other hand, the speed of the movement which arrives on the major resistance makes plausible a bullish breakout, before a corrective movement which would intervene only later.

Country Breakdown

United Kingdom 23%
France 17%
Germany 14%
Switzerland 14%
Netherlands 7%
Spain 5%
Sweden 4%
Others 15%

Sector Breakdown

Financials 19%
Industrials 14%
Consumer staples 13%
Health Care 13%
Consumer discretionary 9%
Materials 9%
Energy 7%
Others 16%

Top Ten Holdings

Nestlé 3%
Novartis 2%
Roche Holding 2%
Total 2%
Royal Dutch Shell 2%
BP 2%
SAP 1%
Glaxosmithkline 1%